Arizona poll finds Kyrsten Sinema would be nonentity if she runs as Independent, draining 6-7% more or less equally from both Dems and GOP

Originally published at: Arizona poll finds Kyrsten Sinema would be nonentity if she runs as Independent, draining 6-7% more or less equally from both Dems and GOP | Boing Boing


Her bottomless thirst for corporate donations and attention will leave her with neither. I doubt she’ll be able to get a cushy revolving-door sinecure now that she doesn’t have influence in either party.

She can take some cold comfort in seeing who’s rooting for her today.


Good. But also, it’s really difficult for me to picture the Democratic voter who would vote for her as an independent instead of voting for a Democrat. Who are these people?


I heard a recent interview with Lieberman and he’s still just as awful and infuriating as ever. Absolutely unapologetic on his shameful stances that singlehandedly led to cutting the public option from the ACA, among other things.


That’s exactly right. If you are voting for her, you are not any kind of Dem that I would identify with. Not after all the shit she has pulled.


One has to do a bit of clicking and scanning to discover the actual poll’s methodology, but here it is:

Public Policy Polling surveyed 678 Arizona voters on December 19th and 20th with a margin of error of +/-3.8%. Half of the interviews were conducted by phone and half were conducted by text.

So they phoned and texted (far) more than 678 numbers and asked them if they were registered Arizona voters and would they take a survey. It should always be noted when the number of rejected efforts is not included. Yet i’d assert that considerably more rejected than accepted. The resulting sample of 678 who answered their phone to an unknown number and took a poll are thereby declared to be a proper random sample of all Arizona voters. How does one know they’re declaring that? Because they use a “margin of error” calculation which requires that be the case: 1/sqrt(678) → 0.0384 for their stated 3.8%. Just something tedious to keep in mind when weighing whether a poll is actually reflecting reality or not. Particularly given points like @ClutchLinkey has wisely raised.


Around 30% of registered voters are registered as Independent or without a party affiliation. For the most part their independence is a bit of a myth, most really reliably vote with one part or the other.

But a couple percentage points washes with what I remember about the few voters who actually do split ballots and occasionally vote across party lines.


29 posts were split to a new topic: Two-party politics vs alternatives

It’s not as if no one saw this coming after she and Manchin scuttled the Build Back Better infrastructure bill. She betrayed her Democratic constituency; Republicans won’t back a non-religious pro-abortion open bisexual.

As an independent, she can grift some more funding before dropping out and becoming a K Street lobbyist. Double dipping from a Senator’s pension and lobbyist pay is by now prosaic.


The conclusions drawn depend on what site you read. For example, electoral-vote summarizes:

Our conclusion, then, is that for every vote Sinema might steal from the Republican candidate, she would likely drive away something like two Democratic votes. So, the blue team really, really needs to find a way to convince Sinema to drop out in 2024.

Who created that website? Who runs it? Any ideas?


Yes, it’s been around for about 20 years, run by two professors. I’ve been following them since close to the site’s inception.

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She’s a DINO :thinking:


She’s also a very active seller of her used fashion items, on FB marketplace and craigslist. Kyrsten Sinema: I think I found the senator's side hustle. It's perfect.

And that’s bad, why? What is that exactly evidence of? Are you saying that people who do that are somehow “bad people”?

I don’t give a shit what she does in her personal life. I care what she does as a US senator.


Recycling is generally considered a good thing.


Not when women do it… then it’s stupid and suspect! /s


Well I think y’all should decide for yourself whether it’s good bad or neutral, and not put words in my mouth. thanks