As Sanders sweeps West Virginia, a triumphant stump speech in Oregon

The point isn’t about how effective the attack ad would be, it’s about whether he’s being attacked and that’s definitely a topic on which he’d be attacked if the attack machine were running.

And literally the second thought I had was “hmm, I bet Sanders did some stuff in relation to the USSR that could be spun into an attack ad”. Sure enough <a href=PolitiFact | George Will describes Bernie Sanders' Soviet Union honeymoon">he spent his honeymoon there.

Yes it’s a bit more complicated and it was more of a diplomatic trip but the point was that if they’re leaving those things on the table they’ve clearly not started attacking Sanders.

Sanders gets a ton of coverage and the stuff you talk about, saying he’s a massive long-shot and his plans aren’t realistic, is true but not really that damaging as attack ads go.

Kerry had 3 purple hearts and got called a coward. Obama was (and still is) accused of being anti-American because of a preacher at his old church. Trump is attacking Clinton as being anti-woman because her husband had affairs (I really hope that attack fails badly).

Literally the first two hunches I checked showed great material for standard character attacks that would be made against any other candidate. The moment Sanders got nominated all you’d see on the pundit shows and talk radio is them debating if he were an actual Manchurian candidate sent to destroy the US.

Ironic you should say study since the only study I’m aware of showed that Clinton gets more negative media coverage than Sanders.

Have no doubt, if the right wing smear machine ever turns on him his national poll numbers will take a big hit.

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*waves*

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Robert Reich: Yes, Bernie’s Numbers Do Add Up

Why Bernie’s Proposals Would Spur Economic Growth

More:

You’re throwing out so many outright, easily debunked falsehoods - that you’re simply insulting my intelligence at this point.

Please get your facts straight with a modicum of research and/or stop being disingenuous if you want to have a sincere conversation with me. If you lack research capabilities, this should help you on your way:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/267247-clinton-ad-sanderss-ideas-will-never-make-it-in-the-real

I will not link directly to any of her shitty ads.

Oh, you mean the incredibly suspect “study” that supposedly used a computer algorithm to automatically sort all content by “sentiment”? The same out-of-context “sentiment” that was determined by bankers who support Hillary?

Have you looked at just who is behind that bullshit study?

The “study” you cite was by Crimson Hexagon who’s led by CEO Stephanie Newby. According to Newby’s own LinkedIn account, the majority of her career was with J.P. Morgan where she was Head of Futures & Options, Head of Private Banking, COO of Global Equities, etc.

Conflict of interest, anyone?

So, someone with extremely heavy ties to a banking entity that’s one of Hillary’s top, direct donors is attempting to tell you that poor Hillary Clinton is getting an unfair shake from the media while Bernie is supposedly getting a pass?

If you haven’t already, please read Manufacturing Consent by Noam Chomsky.

That’s false.


2016 Presidential Media Blackouts: Not Just Conspiracy

What we found is strong evidence of media bias.

Our analysis shows Bernie Sanders is being ignored by the mainstream media to a shocking degree. If covered at the average rate we’d have seen about 61,500 more stories including Sanders in the last 6 months: 91,094 mentions instead of 29,525.

Clinton receives a high amount of coverage, despite no dramatic changes in polls and lower search interest.


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National level polls like we’re talking about tend to be non-predictive, in accurate, and frankly bad at this point in the game. And this is one of the major reasons. Some of the more granular stuff is pretty interesting though. So weird stuff happens to Bernie if you play around with how you poll him vs Trump. Apparently polling his actual policy proposals individually most Americans dislike them. The difference is more extreme the more explanation is provided (including notes on when they would lead to tax increases), and more extreme when you remove specific mentions of Sanders. Like wise if you poll an unnamed candidate with Sander’s exact platform that mystery candidate doesn’t do nearly as well against Trump (though IIRC he still wins). Though the same tricks have basically the same effect on almost all candidates, including Trump. And Trumps numbers turn into an absolute disaster if you remove his name from things. Still interesting though.

@Cowicide

Perhaps shitty reporting on the part of the multiple places I’d read that claim. That first one certainly is a negative add, and is definitely structured the way attack ads typically are. And it is tagged by the official campaign. So that specific claim seems to be wrong. But again look at those ads. Those are not ads attacking him for past actions, personal issues, or other things typical of negative campaigning. Those are predicated on statements and actions from this very campaign as well as the issues and platform he’s pushing. So my larger point still stands. There has been relatively little of that sort of attack on Sanders thus far. Certainly nothing like he would face in a general election. Noone does negative campaigns and attacks quite like the Clintons. And her campaign has acknowledged they have a hell of a lot of opposition research on the guy and have publicly claimed they aren’t actively using it. They’ve openly stated they’re trying to avoid going to hard or negative on the guy. The stated reason being that its unnecessary, and they think it would likely backfire. Bernie’s negative campaigning has potentially backfired in a couple of states, including New York where I live.

Which brings me to another point. I’ve noticed a lot of websites that were previously unknown to me popping up a lot from the Sanders crowd (including Truth Out). Many of them seem pretty sketchy, and I’ve spotted a lot of misrepresented or easily falsifiable information on a lot of them. All of them are HARD in it for Bernie. And I’ve noticed a lot of my peers who are Bernie supporters only seem to be getting their information about the primaries from these sources. But the endless narrow focus on Bernie, endlessly repeated false information, etc. is giving a really inaccurate portrayal of what’s going on. If all the sources you’re looking at just endlessly repeat story lines about how relentlessly attacked Bernie is, you’ll get the impression that its true or more common than it really is. You’re unwillingness to link to her “shitty” ads is part an parcel of this. If don’t look at the original ad you can’t check the announcement at the end for who or what released it. Can’t necessarily see when it was released. And can’t vet whether its really all that negative, or even if they really do fit the sort of attacks we’re discussing (as I said they don’t really fit what I was referring to).

So lets talk about what’s happening out in the real world, personal experience wise. Because as I said its just as important how often this stuff is happening, as it is that it exists at all. In NY during the primary I did not see, hear, or otherwise experience a single negative or attack add targeted at Bernie Sanders. Not from any of the campaigns, including Hillary. Not on TV, not on the radio, not in our local media or newspapers. I’m sure they exist, I’m sure they ran at some level, but infrequent enough that I managed to miss them. Saw plenty of Hillary adds. Got a bunch of polling and campaign calls from her campaign. I did however see and hear tons of negative or attack ads targeted at Trump, Hillary, Crews, and Kasich. And near constant negative and attack ads from Bernie, from both his campaign and surrogates. directed and targeted at Hillary. And our phone was basically ringing off the hook with Bernie campaign calls shit talking Hillary. And that’s to be expected. It happens every election. The lack of action in that regard in terms of Bernie is the only stand out oddity. And its what we’re talking about. He has, generally speaking not been attacked and examined in the same way he would be in a general election. In the same way any candidate would be in a general election. In the same way that other candidates in the primaries generally have. And in the same way his own campaign is doing to the other candidates.

As for my other so called falsehoods. Most of them are easy to check, I even provided clear sources for some of them. Including an actual list of the actual votes actually cast for an actual law as provided by the actual government. Your mileage on these sorts of things may vary. Bernie’s particular problems may not worry you, they may not bother you. But they aren’t false or non-existent just because you dislike them. You might do better to look into the candidate you support more thoroughly. Personally I would not be much bothered by any of the shit I’ve found out about Sanders by doing so. If he wasn’t pointing at everyone else and calling them scumbags for doing exactly the sort of things he himself has done. It seems to be a perpetual thing with Sanders. He railed against super delegates until he needed them. They were bad and undemocratic because they would give the nomination to Clinton even if He beat her in raw votes and delegates, subverting the will of the people. Now he’s asking those super delegates to give him the nomination even though she’s beating him in raw votes and delegates, subverting the will of the people. He repeatedly attacked Clinton for busking for a law he himself voted for. I find that sort of shit unsavory enough that combined with my other issues with the guy its pretty well spoiled whatever liking I had for him at all. Doesn’t mean you’ve got to agree. You can support your chosen candidate warts and all. But don’t pretend the warts don’t exist, and don’t willfully avoid looking at them.

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[quote=“Cowicide, post:43, topic:77904”]
You’re throwing out so many outright, easily debunked falsehoods - that you’re simply insulting my intelligence at this point.[/quote]

Ok, so she’s shown a few mildly critical ads though nothing that could be construed as an actual attack ad. Certainly nothing close to the negativity of Bernie’s repeated wall street attacks.

Is it possible she’s biased? Sure.

But that’s a bit too many association games, particularly since you’re assuming that any senior member of J.P. Morgan must be a Hillary supporter.

It’s a bit hypocritical of you to criticize him for being insincere and not doing research while you’re flat out ignoring all the evidence we’ve given you.

The question is whether Sanders’ general election polling numbers are credible.

We’ve demonstrated multiple devastating ways to attack Sanders, you brushed off one and ignored the others.

It’s ludicrous to think that his poll numbers wouldn’t drop after attacks in a general election.

And frankly I’m starting to change my opinion of Sanders as a principled politician. Its easy to stick to your principles when you’re running in a safe seat with no real cost. The question is what you do when there’s a price to pay.

For months Bernie supporters have been complaining about super-delegates, saying they should follow the will of the voters. Sanders either encouraged them or at least let them go unchallenged.

But now it’s obvious he won’t win the popular vote or the pledged delegates, so he’s actively campaigning for the superdelegates to overturn the will of the voters and give him the nomination and using BS general election polls to do it!

To me that looks a lot like Sanders deciding that his desire to be President is more important than whatever principle he apparently had about superdelegates.

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Ok, I’m stopping there. Sorry, I’m done with you. Your disingenuousness is frustrating and becoming a bore/chore. You can go ahead and sea lion someone else, as I won’t be reading your posts.

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Bernie has not been subjected to a serious attack in the national media,

…what the fuck kind of media do YOU watch for attacks?

Because the only attack that has stuck has been straight-up ignoring him. The NYDN, WaPo, NYT, Fox/CNN/MSNBC attacks have tended to backfire.

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So me acknowledging the one place where you did demonstrate that one of us was incorrect means that I’m being “disingenuous”.

Yet you flat out ignoring every piece of evidence we’ve presented is apparently another mark to your infinite integrity??

Do you even give a crap if you’re correct or not? It seems to me there’s a telling difference between the things that you, me, and Ryu respond to.

When Ryu and I respond to your points we go straight for the stuff that hits our point the hardest, we discuss your best points. We both acknowledged the time you showed us to be at least partially mistaken (even if it was the other person’s mistake).

You on the other hand respond only to the points you think you can counter and simply ignore everything else.

If you want to be on the right side of an issue you need to seek tough questions, not pretend they don’t exist.

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I’m in Canada so mostly online news articles. And the vast majority of those attacks have been on the feasibility of his proposals and his general expertise, though very little on his character or on any controversies. And there’s been a boatload of coverage, mostly overestimating his chances of winning.

I hadn’t heard of a lot of the stuff in the Salon article, certainly not in the form of a partisan attack. Had you?

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Shoo… go away.

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Good point there. Got a bit distracted by my own disappointment with the guy. Whether @Cowicide believes or cares about what we’ve pointed out or not is immaterial to the discussion at hand. This things are out there about Bernie Sanders (and probably more none of us have ever come across). And they would be used to attack the guy in the general, and haven’t been used to attack him in the primary. Whether they would work particularly well or not, or how any of us feel about them isn’t the point. They’d do something to his polling and performance in the general though. Likely push them down. Which is the point I think we’re both trying to make.

Did I ask you for sources as an obtuse way to dismiss your claims? Because that’s sealioning. In fact I provided my own sources, accepted yours, acknowledged my mistake, and reasserted and further explained my point. Which is kind of the exact opposite of sealioning. In fact my only statement that’s even close to requesting sources was to urge you to seek more and better ones yourself. If you aren’t already, which is generally just good advice all round. What exactly is disingenuous about that? Personal invective, and flat out calling me dishonest is totally uncalled for. I’m being totally sincere here. I’m not pretending to dislike Bernie for some sinister purpose, misrepresenting myself, Sanders, or my opinions of him. I’m not even really arguing you shouldn’t like Sanders. And I genuinely do think you could stand to challenge your assumptions on the subject a bit more. At the very least you’ll end up still backing Sanders, but having a better understanding of him. And the biggest downside is you might find out something you feel is very important.

You on the other hand are flat out dismissing people’s opinions, things that are a matter of public record and really anything that isn’t “isn’t Bernie so great!”. And why exactly? You’re not going to win anything by doing so (can’t win a conversation). You’re not going to change anybody’s mind by acting like that. And you aren’t doing a very good job of making your point, or seemingly even having a consistent one.

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CowTip. I’m not reading your posts. Incessant liars bore me. Go away. You can attempt to ‘Correct The Record’ somewhere else.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-clinton-digital-trolling-20160506-snap-htmlstory.html

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I feel like there should be some kind of a rule for when someone loses an online debate so badly they accuse the person of being an astro-turfer (despite having the ability to view profiles and see that both people joined somewhere back in 2013).

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You know what, I had never once been accused of astro-turfing or being a “shill” online until this election. Now its relatively frequent.

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It’s brutal! We should ask for raises :grin:

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Seriously. I’d be much better off if I was getting paid for this shit.

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The righteous indignation should be payment enough!

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And yet the news outlets are going on like clinton is the anointed one still.

Oi. Vey.

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Clinton is still ahead by around 300 pledged delegates, DNC primaries still hand out delegates proportionally, and the number of delegates in each state is still determined by population. Simply put more people over all have voted for Hillary. And there’s still very little chance for Bernie to close the gap there, there are fewer contest left, fewer delegates up for grabs, and fewer chances for Sanders to win with high enough margins to change his standing. He won WV, but that state only has 29 delegates. The proportional breakdown looks to be giving Sanders 18 and Clinton 11. That’s only a 7 delegate shift in the ratio of delegates. Those sorts of wins aren’t really going to shift the situation. There just aren’t enough states or enough delegates to do that. Lets say Bernie’s performance stays roughly the same as it was in WV. Getting around half the votes and thereby around half the delegates. I’m not predicting that for any particular race, or saying it would happen. But its a nice example here and its a low bar for Sanders to hit, and actually seems weirdly plausible. For the rest of the races to average out to about half of things. There are 1,052 delegates left. Taking half of them leaves Sanders with 1,999. You need 2,383 to cinch the nomination on pledged delegates alone, so he’ll come up short. But if Bernie’s only got half, Clinton gets the other half. Which puts her at 2,242. Within spitting distance of locking it up the nom. And she’d still have a lead of over 200 delegates. Before super delegates. She’d only need about 100 of those guys to get the nomination on a first vote at the convention. Its not really functional, or representative of how things actually work in the nitty gritty. But those are basically the mechanics people are talking about. After each loss, or even wins that fail to move the needle on the percentage of votes and delegates Sanders needs to materially change his situation. To catch up to or surpass Clinton, to say nothing of sealing the deal on the nomination, goes up. And the more necessary it becomes for him to hit those margins in every contest moving forward.

Hence Sander’s current talk about a contested convention, and his new found love for super delegates. But a contested convention is a borderline impossibility at this point. With current pledged delegates and stated/expected preferences from super delegates Hillary is already at 2,240. Before we’ve finished handing out pledged delegates. Assuming the basic ratio of delegates stays about the same. For Bernie to take the first vote he’d have to convince pretty much all the super delegates to switch. Which is unlikely, particularly if he remains behind Clinton in actual voting. A second vote after both candidates fail to reach 2,383 would I think be even more unlikely if I understand how it all works right. You’ve got 2 candidates and 2,383 is half plus a little bit (I think its like 1/2 a delegate over a perfect split because odd number), with noone else in the race to pull some of those delegates off from the two leads one of them basically would end up with 2,383 and the other 2,382. Meaning one of them would win. And I’ve already outlined why many people think that would be difficult for Sanders. In all reality the most plausible sort of contested convention Sanders could create is a simple situation where neither candidate has the minimum needed to seal the nomination from pledged delegates alone before the voting at the convention starts. Which isn’t really what’s meant by the term, though there seems to be a lot of confusion on whats meant by “brokered” “contested” and “open” . Generally as I understand it its not technically a contested or brokered convention until actual delegate votes fail to give any candidate the nomination. That may be just a bit of semantics on my part. But unless that happens the situation does nothing for Sanders so I think its a decent frame for the discussion. Anyway these situations are really unlikely in DNC conventions because they’ve put a lot of stuff in place to actively prevent them. Including the super delegate system. Its one of the things they’re for.

SO ANYWAY the news outlets are still going on like Clinton is the presumptive nominee because for the time being she still is.