What if you needed to launch one of the most expensive and sophisticated spy satellites ever, but you are so strapped for earth to LEO capability you are using a (possibly) evil genius who has a side business in BFR. So everyone knows where it is going up from and can track it and so on.
But maybe your ‘oooops’ is on purpose. Dang! Our spy satellite is kaput, it’ll just burn up and fall in the ocean. Nothing to see here folks, move along. Meanwhile your stealth spy sat slowly goes into a different orbit entirely.
Thing is, there are always spy satellites up there; multiple ones, even. Keeping an eye on the trouble spots, keeping eyes on potential trouble spots, just hanging around in case Atlantis rises again or Canada decides to replay the 1812 War. They’re relatively visible in normal wavelengths, they glow in infra-red against the 3K cosmic background, and are rarely stealthed so will show up on radar (those solar panels show up nice and bright at the right angles). Even if it was hard to see, the rocket launch wasn’t, and Newton’s laws let you predict its position with high enough accuracy to track the orbiting burn when it occurs.
So why would this one need an elaborate cover story? Especially one that draws attention to it, ensuring that amateur satellite-spotters will be looking out for it? (Not to mention pros.)
You may not be surprised. Many years ago, a small rocket engine turned up in a ‘technical’ surplus business quite local to us; it was one of ours from many years before and just sat around in the surplus shop waiting to be picked up for scrap. Another time, needing to play a little design jazz with a particular obsolete engine, we discovered one in an out-of-state museum. Bought it back. Played with it.
Nothing unseemly about either situation; no security/strategic concerns about the hardware. All sorts of surprising things get sold for scrap (and don’t actually get scrapped… as we discovered).
