It is already very difficult for euro members to accept that our currency is largely traded outside the currency area, beyond the control of the European Central Bank and of euro-area institutions such as market regulators. That can be acceptable only if, and as long as, the U.K. is a member of the EU, and accepts the involvement of, and co-operation with, the European regulatory agencies.
I get your point, and I realize the situation is complicated. But one lesson from this is that if the plutarchs get too greedy and let the rich buy up all the houses, the reaction will be harmful, even to the people who react.
Update: James O’Malley, a fellow UK tech journalist, has created a petition on Change.org asking Sadiq Khan to declare London independent from the rest of the UK. At the time of publishing the petition had almost reached the 35,000-signature threshold. Given London’s very strong vote for remaining in the EU, we expect there’ll be a lot of rumblings over the next few weeks about a possible secession. Apparently it’s not completely impossible, either: a professor from the LSE told the BBC that Khan is “well within his rights to tell the government London didn’t vote for Brexit and that City Hall now viewed the government as dysfunctional,” thus triggering a process where London could become an independent city-state.
Neither side should underestimate the odds that the finance industry will shift to Paris or elsewhere.
I was thinking people were overestimating the odds. I accept that it’s more likely now, but that doesn’t mean it’s likely in absolute terms. Christian Noyer isn’t exactly an unbiased party.
I think the other EU countries fucked up big time. If they start trying to punish the UK then perhaps it’s a union not worth saving. There’s a big difference between countries being part of the EU because that’s where they want to be vs being part of the EU mostly because they are afraid to leave.
The decline of defined benefits pensions in the UK in favour of SIPPs – like US 401(k)s – means that a lot of the Britons with any pension savings are worse off now. Their inadequate savings were invested in property funds, or in FTSE trackers, or other instruments that are correlated with the London property bubble.
To make things worse, there’s going to be mass, immediate inflation in non-Sterling denominated products, including imports (the UK runs a large trade deficit) meaning that whatever’s left after this will buy less.
If the Bank of England continues its steadfast resistance to putting up interest rates, the pensions that mature in the next 5-10 years and get converted to annuities will return even less. It’s hard to see how the B of E could put interest rates up as property values are declining, without risking a hard crash in property prices and millions of defaults. Last year, the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted that 10,000,000 UK households would default on their mortgages if interest rates went to 5%. With inflation about to rise, the Bank’s going to be between a rock and a hard place.
As has been mentioned before, Trump’s strength is that his opponents have a platform which is designed to please as many reasonable voters as it can expect to win, whereas Trump himself is a psychotic liar who can take every single position on every issue in turn, knowing that most people will only hear one or two of them they understand and respond, “well, that actually makes sense.” He essentially admitted as much when he was the presumptive nominee, and his handlers had to go to the GOP and promise them that everything they had seen of Trump so far was “a character” which would be dropped come the real race.
That being said, the scattershot approach uncovered a lot of political opinions that had been written off, especially those who were skeptical of the benefits of globalization. On most other issues, he at least claims he will do something (ridiculous) as opposed to remaining silent. “I’ll build a wall,” is an absolutely ridiculous claim for anyone who has ever been near the border, a border state, a state that touches a border state, or any wall; but apparently there are enough people out there that have no familiarity with any of those that they think that would at least be doing something.
So in a sense, there is some philosophical overlap between this action and the actions people latch on to him proposing (as opposed to the contrary actions he also proposed that no one really liked).
Britain made a choice. The questions is how Britain can exit the EU as gracefully as possible.
These systems never served the people. They served the rich, finance, and corporations. That is the most important failure of all of the large economic centers. Learn this, do it for the people or no deal.
Both Brexit and Remain were neo-liberal, but the EU has advantages that made it worthwhile voting Remain. Brexit is turning into the disaster I expected, and may end up being worse.
Oxford and Brighton also voted remain and you can get to London from those places without entering a brexit region. I want London to take us out of England as well. There’s no point in staying in the disaster area.
Absolutely true. Consider that as of an hour or so ago, CNN had two headlines on the front page simultaneously: • Trump celebrates, cheers Brexit • Trump: Brexit is Obama’s fault
I understand that any policy that hurts pensioners is bad. My point was that of all the concerns about the Brexit, a loss to sovereign wealth funds is an odd example. I believe most of the sovereign wealth funds that have been goosing London real estate are not British funds, but from Gulf States.
It seems like terrible policy to put pensioners money into property funds that drive up real estate and make housing unaffordable to most Britons. I don’t see how that could have ended well, Brexit or no Brexit.
But nothing much has happened yet. The UK is still part of the EU. The market’s reaction is all about uncertainty and the medium and long term consequences won’t be know for a while. It’s way too early to proclaim you were right.
He’s playing on the same anti-immigrant nativism, racism, and economic illiteracy as the Brexit base, so he’s not only tied to it whether he wants to be or not, but is embracing it.
(He’s also shockingly oblivious to how Scotland voted for a person attempting to be a world leader, though you could say that about virtually any topic).
Maybe not so self-destructive (they have nothing, no?)…
Richard Eskow, who I’ve found to be a reliable, reasonable commentator, has just put up his view of the vote. He expands my rough ideas to include Greece’s woes and Varoufakis. To put it succintly, this is a rebellion against globalization; long overdue, if you ask me.
In Danny Williams’s case, his refusal to give in did result in NL getting a better deal.
How? We have businesses planning to leave the country and we are about to go into another recession. Farage and the Tories will offer even more austerity, as will Labour if they kick out Corbyn.
Britain is FUCKED! Scotland and London are better off leaving and trying to stay in the EU. Maybe when the rest of the county realises the mistake they have made they can rejoin a reunited Britain, but the next decade is going to be very unpleasant for them.
