Brexit wins: Britain votes to exit the European Union

That depends where you live.

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I’ve been away all this time and you’re still using that gif?

Why not, when its meaning still resonates loud and clear?

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yes… Go ahead and feel superior, since you will anyway.

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I’m not sure it does. Does it mean you’re listening intently?

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I don’t feel superior. I put forward my point of view. If you think that I feel superior then you’re reading me wrong.
I feel hopeful is what I feel.

If you need some Welsh in your life, you can always count on Super Furry Animals.

If you need a lot of Welsh in your life, listen to their album Mwng.

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Your tone says otherwise.

Well, around the end of February would have been fine too.

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My tone was polite. It’s the tone of a lot of people here that sounds bitter, angry and resentful. I’d rather we keep it civil personally.

That’s better. Needs a sllluuurrrp subtitle though. Any BBers want to add one and send it to the gif bank?

The central justification used for the creation of modern IRA groups and Northern Sinn Fein is as follows. The IRA was never disbanded, and the DĂĄil was never formally concluded. As such the formation of the Irish Republic, and their current government can not supersede those bodies, and are thus invalid. As is any of their acts. Including the bifurcation of the country, and Independence from the UK. Early Northern groups claimed secret orders from Michael Collins dictating they keep fighting, and even presented forged documents to that effect. Making them the actual legitimate heirs to the Irish revolutionary government and military.

This is all quite interesting because there’s a grain of truth to it. The early IRA wasn’t disbanded, it still exists. As the IDF, the Republic’s Military. And likewise the original Dáil was continued on directly as one of Ireland’s houses of Parliament. Your modern IRA groups, particularly the more powerful ones tend to view the Republic as invalid. And among their goals are not just forcing the UK out, but replacing the Irish government with one of their choosing. Given all that they are not as popularly presented a direct continuation of the Irish War of Independence, but an after the fact continuation of the Irish Civil War. And a direct continuation of the faction that both instigated and lost that conflict (as well as the faction that assassinated Collins, making the early invocation of his name somewhat odd). In fact during the Troubles, Northern Republican groups occasionally traveled South to carry out attacks on Irish soil against Irish people and targeted at the Irish government. The primary goal being independence for NI, and the secondary one being the replacement of the current Irish Government with their own faction.

This is one of the major sources of tension I was referring to there. There seems to me to be more resentment in the South over all that than there is support for Northern Republicanism, of the violent/IRA strain or otherwise. As noted I do not think that most pro-independence Northerners buy into that, or that its still the driving factor there that it once was (as the IRA groups have lost a lot of their influence and Sinn Fein has fought to legitimize itself by cutting ties). But it still sits at the ideological root, and drives a lot of anger and disdain in the South, and a lot of resentment across the border. Its also what I was talking about when I say a political quagmire. Your Northern Republican groups don’t just go away with independence or re-unification. In large part because they are not amenable to NI being governed by the current Irish government. And of course your Unionist groups likely get a shot in the arm.

That’s the thing isn’t it. First and foremost you wouldn’t want the South to support the North at the level that the UK does. Because the UK kind of doesn’t. The thing I keep hearing on the issue out of both NI and the South is that the largest problem in British and Northern relations at this point is neglect. Almost all of the economic development, support and development funds, etc. Coming into Northern Ireland over the last 20 years have come through the EU not via the UK. Which is a large part of why that country voted to remain (and similarly why Scotland did) so heavily. Without EU membership it can’t be guaranteed (and I’ve seen no indication its even been considered) that the UK is willing to step up to replace all that support. Ireland largely can’t step up to provide that level of support. For one they receive large amounts of EU support themselves. For two their economy has largely been in the shitter since 08, well above and beyond much of Europe. While things seem to have stabilized and improved the last few years, that’s a relatively fragile situation. And it seems fairly uncertain exactly what’s going to happen given the inevitable economic down turn in all of Europe because of this shit. More over there seems to be a lot of hemming and hawing, and in some cases down right panic on how to keep the border open and how (and whether) the Republic will be able to maintain their greater involvement in Northern Ireland without the EU. Suddenly all that greater cooperation doesn’t happen via the EU. It now happens via a UK government that has largely seemed happy to let NI rot.

Which is why I say re-unification seems far more probable now than ever before. A cratering NI deprived of EU support is dangerous for everyone involved. Re-unification keeps NI in the EU, completely solves any cross border/cooperation issues. The EU has an active interest in continuing to support Ireland as a whole, to countermand the damage caused by Britain’s exit. The Republic has an interest because it goes the closest to preserving the status quo, and may be one of few approaches to avoiding disaster. The North given their vote in Brexit seems like they might be more amenable to it over all (remember they haven’t left because there hasn’t been enough popular support for the idea, even among Catholics.) Down South support for the general idea is pretty pervasive. But it seems to me when its presented as something that might happen right now a lot of that support is less vocal. I’ve heard a lot of “eventually” and “when they get their shit together” over the years. This mess very well may erode all that. A lot of progress on fixing the issues that have traditionally made it untenable has been made. And Brexit makes it pretty likely that those things will regress with out a significant change (like re-unification).

Obviously the UK has an active interest in keeping both NI and Scotland in the fold. The break up of the UK would be an unmitigated disaster, and the surest sign that this whole shit show was insanity from the start. Which is why you see the UK, pro-leave, and Unionists saying the requirements for a border poll haven’t been met. Near as I can tell they’re right, technically. Sinn Fein is arguing that the results of the Brexit vote itself satisfy the requirements under the Good Friday Accord for majority support on a vote being held. That’s sort of a stretch. But the voting results, and popular anger and global confusion about all this shit indicate that the requirements could be met sometime soon. If Scotland gets another independence vote, which seems likely. And especially if it pans out (which I think would be likely, given how close it was last time). Then the UK sort of has to give NI the same, requirements met or not. The refusal to consider it would be a really good way of turning popular opinion in favor of a border poll and re-unification (given the context). Meaning the vote happens anyway, and the pro-UK side has a greater chance of losing). The South in this situation could be more likely to help push for that than they have been in the past, dependent on how they opt to deal with the fall out.

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Yet you just tone policed my choice of gifs…

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Yeah, sorry 'bout that, but I felt that it’s been a little overused considering all the great options we have in the gif bank.

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That is… wow.

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What IS it about condescension that so often makes those who condescend fail to realize they’re condescending?

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Sadly, that’s probably much more common than will be reported. The color line of the 20th century as described by WEB DuBois is still with is and isn’t going away any time soon.

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