I’m not expecting rationality. They both want and do not want to abide by the agreement, depending on which need is paramount at a given moment, benefiting the companies that support them or maintaining the base of support that has put them where they are. That’s a real recipe for conflicting demands. That being the case, I would foresee them doubling down on whatever resources they figure they want from us.
I’m rather hoping that Idiot-in-Chief doesn’t opt for an Anschluss solution.
There’s not going to be a “hot” war with canada.
If there ever was, the economy of the entire continent would flatline, for starters, and of course it would become a world war because canada is both well connected, and owed many debts dating back to world war 2.
By that reasoning we don’t have to fight them at all. Not getting into a trade war does not imply that we cannot play hardball negotiating. I wonder how many calling for one understand just what constitutes a full-blown trade war,because if they did I strongly doubt they would be so quick to do so. Canada could no more win a classic trade war with the States than we could win a military one.
NAFTA can die, the old FTA comes back into force and Trump can declare victory with little change to the US-Canada status quo. He doesn’t need to go any farther to appease his base.