With all this speculation, I’ll wait until PopeHat’s next Serious Trouble podcast drops, because he usually provides very well-reasoned analyses, and has a wealth of constitutional law expertise.
(That said, his podcasts are often a bit of a bummer, because they tend to try and temper expectations. But, historically, that’s been a good attitude to take towards whatever the Trump development of the day is.)
I hope you’re right in the immunity case, but keep in mind that the conservatives are as confident that Biden won’t abuse his power in another term as they are that TFG will abuse it, to the point where he’ll establish effective permanent rule (per the Project 2025 plan). After Dobbs I don’t have much hope that the conservative Justices (except Roberts) will do the right thing, even with what seems to be ironclad precedent from the Nixon era.
As for the eligibility case, of course the Republicans will weaponise it against Biden if the Justices rule against Biff. I’m about as worried about that as I am about water being wet. I do agree that if the conservatives feel there’s no choice but to rule against TFG they will make their opinion as broad as the Grand Canyon.
We are in new territory now, where the norms of precedent and narrow rulings and assumed good faith on the part of all the Justices are no longer sufficient grounds for hope.
There is a way all of this could have been prevented. And a way to prevent future political weaponizing of the 14th Amendment. The last clause in the 14th Amendment says this:
The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.
Unsurprisingly, Congress never did that. Details like the definition of insurrection and rebellion, who determines that, and who are included as “officers of the United States” were all details intended to be worked out by Congress. They just didn’t. They still could, though. Obviously, with Mike Johnson as Speaker, that’s not going to happen, but Congress could fix this problem.
Lets all think about this for a moment…
Magical right? Fleeting yet magical.
I did literally acknowledge it wasn’t going to happen.
What are you talking about? He has not been tried for fomenting an insurrection yet? What case are you referring to? If you mean the one in arizona, the result of that was he was indeed guilty of fomenting an insurrection, but since the 14th amendment did not mention the president specifically, he could not be barred from seeking a new term… So, he was in fact found to have engaged in an insurrection… the GA case and the JD case haven’t even gone to trial yet…
I think that’s in reference to the second impeachment trial.
Okay, but that’s also not a court of law, so… 
Correct. Impeachments are inherently political trials, so I’m not sure how relevant that is. Although, if they had found him guilty, we would have avoided all of this.
My understanding (ianal, I am not a usainian) was that the senate formed a court/jury.
Regardless, Trump has been accused, but never convicted.
But it’s a political trial, and doesn’t impact the regular courts… plus, we all know that what the Senate did was bullshit.
But a judge HAS SAID he’s guilty of fomenting an insurrection…
How about we not just give up yet, eh?
Yeah, I’ll never not be angry about that.
I am absolutely willing to bet you real cash money that I’m right on this. Trump will be covered by Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Justice Handmaiden.
The end of democracy in America is nigh, you can’t look at what’s going on in Red States and actually think we’re a healthy, functioning democracy. Especially when the leading candidate for the Republican nomination is openly talking about how he will be a Strong Man once he’s elected, coupled with the fact that Biden is so much in the toilet, that at this point it’s hard to see how he gets to a path to reelection.
We have become a failed state, recovering that is probably impossible at this point.
Ok, you give up. I’m not going to, and I’m not going to keep debating you.
How about we NOT GIVE UP before all the outstanding cases are decided… You might not be the direct target of these fascists, but plenty of people here ARE… but it’s on all of us to fight this shit.
Who submits amicus briefs will probably be interesting.
Totally agree. I am the parent of a trans kid, and though I live in a deep blue state, I am terrified of what is coming with a second Trump administration, and the people who are sticking their heads in the sand, believing that the courts will save us, frustrate the living hell out of me.
They can also rule that the Amnesty Act of 1872 invalidated that clause of the 14th amendment because saying “all persons whomsoever” included future people who hadn’t been born yet.
No one is doing that here. None of us are sticking our heads in the sand. I am trans. I’m also scared. But the “all hope is lost” attitude is not helpful or productive.
A point of order, participants.
It seems to me, as an observer from the UK, that if (even) one state rules that someone is not eligible to stand for the presidency, that that would render that candidate invalid for the entire country. I am imagining there is a quorum requirement, and I realise I may be wrong. How does that fly? I’m ignoring any ruling by SCOTUS. If a number of states declared a candidate invalid to stand, could that candidate still get elected?
:: invokes Rule 3 in self-defense :: (Rule 3: NEVER VISUALIZE)
