An extraordinary bulletin from the Covid Observatory19 of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation points out that this is the biggest health and hospital crisis in the history of Brazil.
The infographic shows the beds occupied in the ICU by state. Some places are on the verge of collapse, as several people are waiting for a bed.
I have an old friend who actually married a Brasilian last year to enable them to be together, in Berlin, to get out of the country. Another Brasilian already living in Bavarian, their partner a Greek, will possibly also consider this.
A colleague who arrived with the whole family, mother a German, father a Brasilian, two kids, just around April last year.
They stare at their former home country and despair.
I feel their pain.
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I have a friend who teaches high school in Norway, they went back to teaching in person recently and she was delighted to do so. I havenât had a chance to ask her more about this, but even with the extra classroom social distancing (she teaches in two adjacent rooms simultaneously) that still seems dangerous to me.
Iâll be reaching live in the fall, but will have been vaccinated by then.
For instance, one of the authorsâ analysesâwhich accounted for levels of community spread and school district demographicsâfound that the rate of coronavirus cases in students attending schools with 6-feet policies was 21 percent lower than that of schools with 3-feet policies. But that estimate was considered not significant and had a notably large confidence interval (which provides the range of plausible estimates based on the raw data). The confidence interval for that 21 percent estimate ranged from -47 percent to 18 percent. That means that the 6 feet of distancing could have decreased case rates as much as 47 percent compared with 3 feetâwhich most parents and school staff would probably consider significant. But confusingly, 6 feet of distance could have also increased case rates by as much as 18 percent.
The study wasnât able to include contact-tracing data, so although the counted cases were among staff and students who recently attended in-person school, thereâs no way to know how many of their infections happened while they were at school. Also, children tend to have asymptomatic or mild infections, and itâs not clear how many infections in students may have been missed. Notably, case rates in school staff closely tracked with case rates in the community, while student case rates tended to be much lower than both.
To me this all comes down to being a smart consumer of information: the studies are all preliminary and problematic. You canât trust the conclusions (thatâs really on the scientists, who I think really should be in trouble for making them in this case). So the studies might suggest something, and now you have to decide what the ramifications are if you put them into policy: what if they are right and what they are if they are wrong? If they are right you can pack more kids into schools without increasing transmission amongst the students and staff, although either way, you might be increasing transmission in the community. If they are wrong, you are increasing the spread of the virus at a point where, in the US at least, we are so very near significant vaccination milestones (and crucially, expect to be at a huge milestone before the next semester).
The study immediately made waves. In an interview this past Sunday, CNN anchor Jake Tapper asked top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci, âDoes this study suggest to you that 3 feet is good enough?â
Fauci responded, âIt does indeed.â
But a closer look at the actual data in the study provides a much murkier answer.
I want to like Dr. Fauci, but I do feel like he has major blind spots.
Speaking of being a good consumer of incomplete information versus and extraordinarily shitty consumer of, well, Iâm not even sure it rises to the definition of information:
I mean, do the health officials supporting these holds have access to information about these cases that I donât, and thatâs making the difference? âThe blood clots immediately follow vaccine symptoms.â âWeâve had no other deaths in the affected populations.â âThe blood clots looked like gigantic covid molecules and with little mouths screaming, âIt was the vaccine! The vaccine made me!ââ