Continuing coronavirus happenings (Part 4)

I kinda think China will be lucky if they only lose 2 million people.

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If you go up to the thread that @KathyPartdeux posted above, the prediction of that particular virologist was 1-2 million. Feel free to debate that person if you’d like. I tend to trust experts on their predictions. If you’ve seen other virologists posting higher numbers, I’d love to see it.


Blame me, everybody. I suck!!!


No, I was just being pessimistic. Good to know that’s a prediction by an expert!

No, you’re awesome - though reading through that thread sucked… it was just bloody awful.

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2 million dead isn’t bad enough? That’s a huge number of people… and it doesn’t even count the people who will end up with long-haul covid in China…

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Time to flip over the envelope and do some figgerin’…

The :us: has had ~1.13 million die, and there are 4.6m people missing from the civilian labour force, about 2.8% at this point.

The :cn: official death toll is so silly I won’t repeat it. It has been thoroughly debunked by George Calhoun (archive link to Forbes article), but the crude estimate end of 2021 was 950,000; call it 1.3m today.

I’m thinking that is low by 2 to 4 times…

The World Bank puts the Chinese labour force at 800m in 2019 (slightly higher participation rate than the U.S., but plausible). That drops by 8m to 792m in 2020, and by 0.4m in 2021. I’m not sure I believe that 2021 figure, but let’s say the same drop happened this year and 1.2% of the labour force is missing.

If we assume similar deaths to labour force impact as the U.S., then the labour force drop alone suggests the Chinese death toll is probably around 2.2m people already. The Chinese are very likely making their labour force numbers look good. If we assume the real drop is the 2.8% number from the U.S., that suggests 5.6m dead, and a 22.4m drop in labour force.

India seems to be missing 3.2% (World Bank) of its labour force as of end of 2021, so my using the U.S. figure for China might be generous. Estimates of 2.7m dead in India as of end of August 2021 suggest the ratio of labour force decline to deaths ratio is similar to the U.S., so I don’t feel too far out of bounds applying either to China.

All of this is very rough.

Another 2m deaths in China would be roughly another ~8m missing from the labour force.

Their economy isn’t going to come roaring back from that any time soon.

Edit: And if the real figure is even close to the 5.6m dead suggested by the labour force numbers, then another 2m dead is probably looking inevitable, and lower economic disruption like the path of least resistance.


Those are depressing assed numbers. The amount of human suffering dredged up in those few sentences is overwhelming. But, as is well known, one death is a tragedy, one million is a statistic. At least so long as people actively supress any empathy for fellow human beings.



The employee said his supervisor also advised workers not to get tested so they could stay on the production line. Foxconn bans those with positive test results from production facilities and dormitories. A growing number of Covid-19 patients have been housed in facilities including a vocational school and an unfinished apartment complex, according to workers. Some workers said they were given sufficient food and medicine, while others complained of dirty toilets, food shortages, and a lack of medical care. Some employees told us that they were worried about losing income by taking sick leave.

In contrast to the panic triggered by the October outbreak, workers say coughing and fever have become common occurrences on the production lines. One 30-year-old new recruit, who also requested anonymity, told Rest of World he worked with a fever for two days as he waited for his Covid-19 test result last week. His managers also seemed sick, as they scolded slow workers in raspy voices. “They couldn’t even walk steadily,” the worker said. “Weren’t they Covid positive as well?”

At a crematorium in Beijing’s Tongzhou district on Wednesday, a Reuters witness saw a queue of around 40 hearses waiting to enter, while the parking lot was full.

Inside, family and friends, many wearing white clothing and headbands as is tradition, were gathered around roughly 20 coffins awaiting cremation. Staff wore hazmat suits. Smoke rose from five of the 15 furnaces.

There was a heavy police presence outside the crematorium.

Reuters could not verify whether the deaths were caused by COVID.


Just admitted a 4 week old with Covid. Haven’t seen that in a long time. n=1, of course, let’s hope this is not the start of a new thing. Hating hating hating this timeline.


Kids hanging out at the clubs obviously. When will they learn.


Our first :christmas_tree: :turkey: get-together in 3 years is cancelled: the remote family members got exposed to COVID, and fairly solidly. Turns out that their friend’s malady was not “just a cold”. :persevere:

This is a terribly minor complaint by any reasonable measure. Also, on the plus side, none of us will feel the need to travel in the storm that’s bearing down.

…and at least I’d cheaped out and gotten the inorganic turkey.

COVID seems to be hitting our friends and acquaintances alarmingly often of late. Stay safe, everyone.


But the pandemic is over I was told.


I know what you’re saying, but for me it’s not supression, I just don’t think a human being could even survive really comprehending a million last breaths, who knows how many more millions bereaved, what they could have done, etc. IMHO of course.


We were going to have our daughter and husband over on Friday evening as long as they took a test but I’m still on the fence about the four of us masking.

They are both working from home and wear masks everywhere.

But in Michigan that storm is not looking good so maybe mother nature decides for me. We are about an hour apart, no sense risking an accident and making things harder for first responders and ER staff.


So, a robot turkey?


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Today, the leader of “Yamato Q” (a Q Anon group in Japan whose claim to fame is antivax shit) was sentenced to 18 months in prison for an incident this March in which the group barged into a mass vaccination site (illegal entry) in an effort to stop people from getting vaccinated (obstruction of business, which is a crime in Japan because of the Yakuza).

Four other members of the group received sentences ranging from 10 months to 1 year.