Cruz soundly beats Trump in Iowa; Hillary edges past Bernie


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He Has A Name You Know

She won six precincts by coin tosses.




Cruz: 27.7%
Trump: 24.3%
Difference: 3.4%



I used to support anybody-but-Trump, but lately anybody-but-Cruz is starting to grow on me. I’d just root for whoever’s most likely to lose in the general election, if I could figure out who that is


3.4% is a sound margin, like it or not, compared to 0.3%, compared to what was expected, and especially compared to the polling margin. Tough break, Donald.



I posted this in the Bernie thread but here’s good too.

Clinton only won because of the olds. If she gets through to the general she’s going to have to deal with the fact that under-40 Dems don’t like her at all.


Front runner by coin toss. I bet that’s exactly the narrative her campaign was going for.




I love this tweet, quoted in the Telegraph article


Having seen that Cruz “won” over Trump, about ten of the pores on my skin started calling for fluid flow…and then I remembered who’d won Iowa previously. Huckabee. Before that? Santorum. And now Cruz. So we went from pandering evangelical, to frothy fecal matter pandering evangelical, and finally to a fairly perfect representation of a frothing container of fecal matter who panders to evangelicals, conservatives, or really anyone who would listen to his lunacy. Have I got that right? Hmm…close enough, methinks.

The Clinton/Sanders campaigns will be cheering every Cruz win, in my opinion.


If the chart at the top of the article is correct, Cruz doesn’t get most of the delegates. He gets the most delegates, but that’s only one more than two his opponents.


Also contrary to the myth of a coin toss being 50/50, the odds of a coin flip are actually 51/49 (depending which side of the coin is sticking up before the toss)


538 thinks that, since the delegates are awarded proportionately, Rubio actually overperformed against expectations/needs in terms of getting the final nomination.

I really don’t like Rubio any more than I do Cruz or Trump though. He’s a much of a far right lunatic as Cruz, just slicker.

Any bets on how much longer Jeb! pretends he wants to be President? Just until next week?


One of his tweets from 2013 has come back to bite him in the ass in a big way.


2014, too.


Bit like the Scottish independence referendum here in the UK, the 55.3% no vote is repeatedly spun as overwhelming victory over the actual very borderline outcome it was…


It also helps if the one tossing the coin says, “Heads, Hillary wins; tails, Bernie loses!”


Yeah, but no one remembers the second time he said it.


to claim most of Iowa’s Republican presidential candidate delegates.

Does the winner get them all? Because 8 of 26 is not “most.”