Oh, really? Then why is it called a forecast?
ballot fraud has been investigated by republicans and democrats for 20+ years with no sign of anything more than a microscopic percentage of votes cast. republican congressional committees and republican prosecutors have both searched in vain for any sign of ballot fraud.
meanwhile, the republican party in state legislatures across the country have publicly gone all-in on making it harder to vote, making it harder to get registered to vote, and making it harder to get one’s ballot counted since shelby county vs holder
connecting those two things with the attribute of “bs” is taking false equivalence to the level of curatable art and you should be deeply ashamed of yourself for even typing that sentence i quoted.
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If anything, these republican polls are just laying the groundwork for charges of voter fraud. "See? We predicted a +2 Trump win, but he lost by -9. What could be more obvious in demonstrating that fraud was involved?! What else could possibly explain that our partisan poll was off by 10 points?!"
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Yes, he might win. But it looks like he won’t.
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If Nate’s models are consistently closer to the mark for predicting voter behavior than the broken-clock folks who happen to call the outcome correctly in one or two elections then everyone who actually CARES about polling and statistics will still look to FiveThirtyEight as an important indicator of current trends.
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False equivalence is false.
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…and somehow I am only now about to pour my first drink, despite having been awake for 14 hours.
I think I’ll go tropical tonight.
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I waited to respond. I’m not feeling all that great about Trump’s “10% chance” as the race tightens in places Biden has been so consistently polling ahead. Granted, we have to wait a few more days for counting to complete. Still, though. There is a disconnect between what Nate Silver has written and what we are seeing play out.
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I think the most aggravating thing for me right now is basking in the knowledge that an extremely large contingency of voters have suffered greatly over the past 4 years, and STILL think Trump is the better choice.
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no, apparently not
just a few percent at best 
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that’s exactly how I’m feeling about it today.
it’s an awful state. trump will have the support of those people whatever happens.
I’m an observer in the UK. I cannot imagine how awful it feels not to just being a Biden supporter but people who are concerned about so much so many critical issues too numerous to count, but lets put climate change near the top of the list. Four more years without oversight or any consequence whatsoever is terrifying. But here we are.
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I awoke to news that Biden has pulled ahead in GA and PA.
As it stands right now, Biden is ahead by 4.1 million votes nationally. But yeah, it’s a “close” election at 50.5% to 47.7%, which would be a very solid lead if wanting or needing to live in a part of the country with a strong economy and rich culture didn’t devalue someone’s vote like a new car being driven off the lot.
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