Drums of War

There’s this tradition…

Russia invaded Crimea on 20 feb 2014. The Sochi games didn’t end until 23 Feb 2014.

But when you’re the host, your cynicism bows to no one.

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Yeah… being in the states, living where I do (a very diverse, blue part of a reddish state), I feel relatively safe in the day to day, but I do worry about our upcoming elections and the focus on my state. We do have some scary, right wing elements here, and I worry less about external threats and more about that, honestly.

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There are plenty of things I worry about domestically, I just don’t know if they come close to the threat of a military invasion.

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Schitts Creek Comedy GIF by CBC

Yep. But the whole world in general feels dangerous and on edge lately. I suspect that war in the Ukraine won’t stay confined to Eastern Europe or even Europe… I worry about the general blowback we’re all going to have to deal with.

Wonder Years Reaction GIF

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As far as I can tell, Russians do not believe that their leaders are planning an invasion of Ukraine. They might be afraid of a war in Ukraine, but that is not the same thing as believing that their country will initiate it. Again, they might be wrong; but that is not the issue here. The point is that Russians would not see a drawdown of forces from the Russian-Ukrainian border as a defeat, since they are neither expecting an invasion nor wishing for one.

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I have wondered about this as well. The propaganda has been that the US is causing this panic. One man on the street interview in Russia, the guy said something like “The US will invent this, then when it doesn’t happen they will take credit for it not happening, and seem strong.” When he said that I wondered what he would think when it really did happen.

The press there the last few days have referenced the heightened American military presence in Poland, though. It is almost the reverse of reality, they are saying that Putin can’t allow NATO to encroach further onto the Ukrainian border. I think that will be on the top of the bullet point list for reasons he did it.

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This site has a great up to the minute collection of raw information regarding events in Ukraine. Sources are pulled from Twitter and Telegram feeds, but they do mark things that are known propaganda.

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I think Ukrainians are less apprehensive than people in other countries. Biden and NATO are saying the Russians are going to invade any time over four weeks ago, and so far, nothing has happened. Diplomatic talks behind the scenes must be intense, as military forces growl softly on either side of the border. I really hope nothing happens and the people of Ukraine are not caught in the crossfire.

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There’s a reason you don’t invite in people like this.

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It’s funny how much conservatives hate protests until it’s them protesting. They support police cracking down on any left leaning protest, then call the same tactics tyranny when directed towards them.

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I think it was Ann Coulter or Michelle Malkin who advocated “a little local fascism”.

EDIT: It was Ann Coulter.

“My libertarian friends are probably getting a little upset now but I think that’s because they never appreciate the benefits of local fascism.”
Orcinus: A little local fascism

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As the world moves on, I guess they are starting to feel the same lonely angst as all the other conspiracy theorists. Eventually they will just be a convention booth between the hollow earth people and the lizard Illuminati conspiracy people. Maybe they will put up some statues we can pull down.

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Putin is forced to take the completely unexpected step of keeping his invas… I mean his military exercises force in Belarus, because NATO might invade the Ukraine… or something.

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“So, Mr, Putin, I’ve got you pencilled in for next August. In the meantime, NO Invasions, OK?”

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The word that springs to mind is “hapless”. I don’t think Putin has spent years of planning, insulating Russia economically, trying his best to destabilize the US from within, and very costly military maneuvering to get a meeting with Biden.

Isolationists aren’t all that scared of sanctions. They’ve worked to lower their national debt to something like 20% of their GDP. They are focused on strategic partnerships with nations that also won’t care about the sanctions.

I think on this rarest of occasions Putin’s demands are honest. I think he really wants, as a first step, the US out of Eastern Europe. Period. China wants us out of the Pacific. We have been telegraphing weakness during the last 30 years while they have modernized militarily, so, I think both Russia and China feel they can accomplish their goals.

A coworker scoffed at the idea of Russia, or even China, ever invading the US. I agreed, not only because of the logistic impossibility, but mainly because they have no need or want to. We have nothing they want. What they want is to get rid of us and fill our vacuum. They want us to fade into another old-world, once-imperialist nation, buy their stuff, and be quiet.

Long term, that’s disturbing on many levels, especially if world war is on the table as an opportunity to make that happen.

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