Aside from all the comments I’ve made in this thread which explain my reasoning and my wager, none of the scenarios brought up here are similar to the planning cycle for the invasion of Iraq. Its worth pointing out again that there have been decades of planning on potential scenarios with the DPRK and yet the scenario remains fundamentally unchanged.
EIDT: Unfortunately the BBS does not seem to support markdown tables so as a bit of minimal explanation:
- Iraq was vulnerable from air, land and sea, the DPRK is none of the above
- Iraq required far more logistical planning to get ground troops and equipment in place while the US has had both stationed in the RoK & Japan for decades. Not to mention air and sea power in East Asia
- The invasion of Iraq did not involve scenario planning which would cover dealing with the near certainty of massive damage to one or more US treaty allies
The scenarios could not be more different really.