If I was an adversarial black hat, infecting a pollster with bogus info would be considered low hanging fruit.
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I agree with you on this. There is a class of people in this country who are susceptible to misinformation.
This election breaks down along starkly rural/urban lines. Democrats have to figure out how to access those rural voters. Consider West Virginia’s coal miners, for instance. Within the last century, they fought a literal shooting war against the mine owners, but somehow the Republicans have tricked them into voting for those same mine owners. It’s a complete messaging and communication failure that Democrats can’t persuade those folks to vote in their own best interest. Trump already failed those miners for four years, it should be the easiest thing in the world to pull them across the line.
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There was a guy on the radio that said Southern conservatives are reticent to reveal any information to pollsters. It’s not that they lie; they just refuse to participate.
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Philly and Pittsburgh and most of the southeast collar counties haven’t counted even 50 percent of the mail in ballots yet. They’re pretty D (Philly exceptionally so, obviously), so the Ds can win PA by hook or crook.
BUT…just checked results at two of my township’s precincts. The township is about 60 percent R, but the turnout yesterday was 75/25 and 80/20 R/D. The GOP turned out hugely here, which will probably extend to the whole central state GOP “T” plus the formerly D southwest and growing R northeast.
So, in conclusion…who the Hell knows?
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Arizona went Biden putting him at 238 electoral votes. Trump lost his lead in Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10). Nevada (6) is likely to go Biden
238 + 16 + 10+ 6 = 270 to win for Biden without the rest of them.
Trump isn’t going to be finding large numbers of votes turning up with the mail count.
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The focus will be on my lovely Keystone State today and tomorrow at least, so if you’re a stathead, here’s the link to the state election bureau’s mail-in vote counting dashboard, so you can see how many mail-ins are being counted.
The political nerd-citement is palpable!
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They are not stupid, they do know exactly what they want, and that’s a white supremacist society. 
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We were just talking about this last night. I wonder what a map comparing tax $ per capita (per student) would look like overlaid on a blue/red map. We were talking about it because even here (Maine) when we had a horrible governor (didn’t win popular vote, prior to ranked choice), our legislature didn’t degrade to the point we see in some other states. We have a really good public school system here, and we wondered about correlation/causation.
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I think they hate you because you are what they fear, an intelligent, strong willed, woman of colour. They are so afraid they will act against their own self interest just to put people like you down so there is someone they feel they have power over you. As long as they have someone to stomp on they can forget for a while that they are being crushed too.
The people who voted republican are small people that it is horrible that you have to deal with every day. I wish we could write them off and get on with our lives, but I don’t think we can do that anymore.
I just want you to know that you are not alone. People all over the world stand with you. You have every right to exist and keep the fight going. As I heard on the radio today, as Canadians, we love you, we wish you guys could get your act together, and if you need help burning down the white house, well, we have some experience with that. Just saying.
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I’m not a woman of color. All women’s rights are under attack here.
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The modeling took a lot of this into consideration and this looks to be what is shaping out.
It is incredibly frustrating that Nostradumbass has gotten as many votes as he has in the popular count.
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no, just no.
i live in texas, outside the 25-30 people in my immediate family, almost everyone i know is a trump supporter nd they are all in for the meanness and cruelty of trumpism. i have cousins who routinely make social media posts that say that keeping migrant children in relatively clean dog pens is “too good for them.” that it is such an improvement over the squalor they live in at home that it isn’t a deterrent. i have an uncle that thinks the witness to forced hysterectomies conducted by ice who was almost deported despite being an american citizen should have had their citizenship revoked and deported anyway.
the austin and san antonio newspapers interviewed hispanic men who supported trump and their number one reason for supporting him was that “he knows how to deal with mouthy, pushy women.” this is not ignorance on parade this is deliberate cruelty and siding with the biggest bully.
additionally, it is not like the republican party has hidden their rancidly regressive agenda, they’ve delighted in it and danced on the grave of democracy. at every step of the way the republican party has demonstrated that trump is absolutely the apotheosis of republicanism not an aberration.
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Yeah, what is confusing about Cuban-Americans is that they support administrations that want to make life harder for actual Cuban people. So they apparently care less about Cuban people than they do sticking it to the Castro regime.
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Right? At what point do we STOP giving them the benefit of the doubt here?
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Yes. that area, in your circle…sure. I am not arguing that. You are leaving off ALL of what I said above. While some of these voters are card carrying members of the hatred, racist, cruelty is the way club…not ALL republican voters are. And how many of the ~67m people who voted for this asshole are even Republicans?
I used Florida as an example…a large LatinX voter base and he carried them handily over Biden. You think its due to racism? It’s not…its misinformation in that case.
Yes, Texas, Arkansas, Alabama…sure I buy the classic reasoning for them being red states. But Florida? North Carolina? Pennsylvania? yeah…not si sure that electorate is such a simple explanation.
They don’t see it that way, because they see the Cuban people in Cuba living under the most brutal of dictatorships that must be defeated at all cost. This is straight up Reagan-era theory - that a right wing dictatorship is better than a left-wing one, as the former can be “reformed” (ie, it is capitalist, so it doesn’t matter how many people they kill) while the latter can not (ie it doesn’t matter how many people they might have given decent health care, food, and shelter, because communism is always bad/immoral, even if the right wing body count is far higher).
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The whole world doesn’t hate you. Sometimes life just sucks
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It is a pretty solid, clear cut forecast for a Trump loss at this point. AZ, NV, MI and WI put Biden over 270 and PA still could go blue. The court cases will drag on for a while, but no one seems to think there is an actual legal argument for not counting ballots cast prior to election day, which all these are. Senate still up in the air, but not looking good. So much less than I hope for, but better than I feared last night.
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Thank you.
I am feeling very Jane Lane right now…
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Even if Trump voters got 100% of their information from Trump himself they should have more than enough information to realize he’s a racist misogynist fascist just from the shit that comes out of his mouth.
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