Some of us think that by handing Trump an acquittal, it actually works AGAINST voting him out in 2020. It would seem to further his narrative that the whole proccess was just a politically motivated witchhunt. Given how the EC divvies up voters,it is likely that a significant supermajority of voters will be needed to vote him out.
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Only for those too naive or ignorant to understand that McConnell and co. always put the GOP and its donors above the national interest. There are a lot of them, no doubt, but I think that’s less than 50% of the electorate. But yes, as I’ve noted the Electoral College is a problem, one that can only currently be addressed in 2020 through a more competent campaign organisation than Hillary Clinton’s.
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At the moment, and in the foreseeable future before the next election, if the House impeaches Trump, the Senate will acquit him. Therefore, impeaching Trump to get rid of him is off the table for now.
This means that any impeachment process must be judged purely as a political action, based on how much it will help the Democrats, and hurt Trump and the GOP. Going for the impeachment now, with almost year and a half to the election, and the summer just starting, is a very bad time; it will be hard to keep people engaged long enough to matter in the election, and the Democrats open themselves up for accusations of stretching things out for political reasons.
A much better time would be in the spring 2020, far enough away from the election that it will be hard to accuse Democrats of interfering with the election, but close enough that Democrats can use the impeachment hearings in the House to put pressure on Trump and the Republicans, and (if necessary) divert from their primary if problems arise.
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There are other reasons to go that route. Reasserting congressional power over the executive. And the ethical imperative to at least attempt to do something about abuses of power and wrong doing.
The bigger issue is that you won’t neccisarily be able to do those things successfully if the public doesn’t support impeachment. And a majority are currently opposed. The larger number of more prominent Democrats calling for impeachment. And more explicit statements from leadership that its a possibility are a response to big up ticks in support for the idea on the left. But thus far there’s been little change on the other side. Right wing voters are still heavily opposed. So they’re kind of walking a tight rope. It’s clear that they should impeach, and that they can Impeach. But to make it anything other than pointless they have to shift public opinion as much if not more so than they need to build a case and investigate.
The Senate will shift if, when, and to the extent that public opinion does. If enough likely GOP voters start supporting the idea that it endangers their chance of holding the Senate or White House. The practical problem of conviction will start to fade.
And it puts it on the god damn public record with evidence to back it up. Impeachment proceedings themselves are a step in the shifting public opinion process. So the question becomes how far do you have to push it before you take that step.
It certainly would be spun that way. But Mueller has been vague in certain ways. In avoiding making a clear pronouncement, and sticking to the whole process and propriety will protect us approach. He leaves too much room for denial even as its pretty clear that he found evidence of crimes.
Impeachment proceedings don’t risk that. Largely because unlike the investigation it all takes place in public, on the public record. If they really do mount an air tight case. If they stick clear evidence of wrong doing, testimony, admissions in front of the public. And the GOP refuses to participate or convicted on a rote party line vote. That probably stands a bigger chance on backfiring on the GOP than a failed impeachment does on the DNC.
But again that’s a tight rope, and you can (and should) start doing that before and without impeachment. There’s a lot of prep work, which they appear to be doing.
I think the bigger issue Senate wise is that the GOP will largely control proceedings there. So as much as possible needs to happen in the house, and passing articles of impeachment moves it right over to the Senate.
I don’t get the insistence that they do it right now, or the laments that they clearly never will. Nor do I get the dismissals that its pointless. You need to do it properly, and they appear to be doing that. In all likelihood we’re going to see explicit investigations into the grounds for impeachment (the step before articles get drawn up) before too long. That’ll placate those insisting on impeachment, rachet up the investigations. And its the fastest way to obviate the administration’s legal BS for fighting subpoenas. Trump seems to be actively baiting them in that direction. And we shouldn’t assume that idiot wanting something automatically means it should be avoided.
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I do see the argument for impeachment. But I am way more concerned about corruption of the 2020 election. There is hardly any time to work on that & it should be a high priority in Congress, along with closing the immigrant death camps.
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The thing is, despite my disagreement on this and some other things, she is still my first choice for the nomination, although I will admit that I don’t know enough about some of the others running to have a fully formed opinion of them yet. She has a mix of empathy, experience, and expedience that would make a good president. But at this point, if the Democrats nominated “Hat on a Stick,” then I’m all in for STICK 2020.
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So much THIS. If nothing else, it’s not rolling over and showing their bellies. Go on record as opposing this “regime.” That makes the ones who block it and keep this unfit despot in power ALSO go on record. Everybody knows until everybody forgets. Paper trail this shit.
“What you do and say may be used against you during an election.”
While I can see the point of your statement, it has NEVER been “hard” for the current crop of GOP to accuse the Democrats of any damned thing. They’ve repeatedly shown they can easily earn the platinum in mental gymnastics.
At this point I’d bet if impeachment proceedings were begun on January 1st, 2020 the first news to drop – probably as a tweet from Donald da’Trump – would be how the Dems are trying to interfere with the election.
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How about because it’s the right thing to do?
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True; let’s say rather that it will be hard for the GOP to successfully accuse Democrats of interfering with the election. (We can dismiss the Trumpist faithful, they’ll believe anything and everything they’re told.)
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Don’t be silly; this is America. ‘Right’ is only whatever makes lots and lots of money, for the very few.
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To me its most about 3 things.
- that the senate doesn’t do its job is a horrible reason for the house not to do its job
- The house doing nothing does McConnell’s “job” of protecting Trump for him
- Impeachment is the single thing that puts the most substantial pressure on the senate and forces them to take public stands on hard issues
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There it was…ringing out through the misty, foggy, midnight air: a crystal clear, simple and correct statement from none other than @Malarkey! Hip, hip, hooray!
Seriously…thanks for bringing the conversation back down to basic reality.
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First of all, even if the Senate acquits up and down on Mitch McConnell’s say-so, Impeachment would:
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Put legal strength and fangs behind subpoenas, document requests and more, increasing investigative powers.
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Result in televised hearings where Trump’s minions will have to explain what they did, and how, under oath.
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Will lead to every R. Senator standing up and saying “No, I have no problem with Mr. Trump …” on-camera, which you then run, over and over and over in the runup to 2020: “Mitch McConnell is fine with bribery, lying, having a President who treats their Treasury like an ATM and with breaking the law; are YOU Ok with Mitch McConnell?”
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Finally, IT IS THE MORALLY RIGHT THING TO DO. Not stealing from Americans isn’t a partisan issue. Not taking help from the Russians shouldn’t be a partisan issue. Enriching yourself at the public’s expense is not a partisan issue. AND IF THEY ARE, F**K THOSE FOOLS.
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For everyone who says “Impeachment would just solidify his base,” THEY ARE ALREADY SOLID. THEY WILL NOT BE MOVED BY YOUR PHONY EQUANIMITY, and YOU WILL LOSE THE VOTE OF DEMOCRATIC PARTY VOTERS WHO EXPECT IT TO BE, you know, A DEMOCRATIC PARTY with leaders who respond to what voters want, not to some Clintonian too-clever-by-half mix of posturing and timing and tactics.
The only reason we aren’t impeaching is because Nancy Pelosi is a coward and a Republican-in-all-but-name. Exposing Trump’s bad behavior will put her – a donor’s stooge, a pal of industry, a warmonger and a hawk – under the spotlight and mar her precious chances of getting re-elected to what’s now pretty much a position she keeps getting coronated to. Pelosi can’t impeach Trump for fear that she’d have to demonstrate a moral core, and that isn’t her at all.
America can’t wait for Impeachment. And I can’t wait to vote against Pelosi in the next primary, again.
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Hey, don’t bring the turtles into this. They can’t help their unfortunate resemblance to a lower life form.
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Are you kidding me?! Why, Hat on a Stick’s a neoliberal who took a donation from a big bank that one time and has occasionally worked with Republicans, which is basically the same thing as BEING a Republican. I am definitely staying home on election day unless Cap on a Cane gets the nomination.
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We need to apply some rupugs tactics to this issue. They love impeachments.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/democrats-republicans-impeachment_n_5cf8050ae4b0e63eda948d87
I also think the only way to get repugs off their ass is to show them how pissed off the rest of the country is. And enough of his base is sorta like Jeff Jefferies - (right around 1 minute in.)
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Impeachment may be a losing proposition, but not impeaching in the face of clearly impeachable acts only further weakens Congress in the future by setting a precedent.
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And weakens our democracy and our standing in the world.
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This isn’t going to convince anyone, but I’m in favor of impeachment as a historical marker (knowing full well that the Senate won’t remove Trump from office).
I’m picturing people fifty years from now who haven’t lived through this looking back at these times and being just stunned by the era.
The question of “what the hell were you thinking? didn’t you see how bad this guy was?” coming from their incredulous lips. I’d like to be able to respond (if I live that long) by saying “yeah! we knew, we tried, we impeached him. It wasn’t enough, but we tried.”
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