Fauci expects COVID-19 vaccine by end of the year, 100 million doses to be ready in the US

Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/06/03/fauci-expects-covid-19-vaccine.html


Which 2/3rds of the population go without?


That seems like a grand idea… is that normal?


Which do you think?


It’s really easy (and usually justified) to be cynical and immediately jump to all the well, actually here’s why this is concerning…, BUT this is pretty good news!

Fauci has not been anything like Pollyannish about our prospects for any of this, so I gotta believe that if he’s saying this, he’s still erring on the side of caution to some degree.


As I understand it, no.


Oh, I think we know the answer to that one. Still, good news overall, especially coming from an expert who correctly errs on the side of caution in most of his announcements.


They’re deploying Predator drones, the DEA and the National Guard to figure that out right now. And people criticized the administration’s response as being behind the curve.



What is term in the pharm world that equates to vaporware?

The idea is that they start producing now and only use it after the trial confirm it is safe. It’s a bet.

A virologist recently explained to me that this is not the case. He said there are simply so many Corona viruses that people develop antibodies against each one of them, but they only help against that specific one. Now I wonder who got this wrong.

Vapor vaccine?


A bet they have to win. I see it as an impending sunk cost fallacy that will edge them toward releasing it whether it’s proven to be safe to or not. But I’m a pessimist, especially when it comes to pharmaceutical companies and our government.

“The final trials came in, and it seems the vaccine causes – potentially temporary – blindness in roughly 5% of the test subjects. But we’ve already made 80 million doses. What do we do?”

Honestly, I’m not an anti-vaxer. I believe in vaccines, back when we had a government that gave the tiniest portion of a shit about any of the little people. Now? I just don’t know. I’d like to be able to trust someone in authority, but…


I am not an expert at all, but I think the durability concern is related to the specific mode of action of Moderna’s vaccine.

A 4000 mile up primer here:

And a deep dive here (way beyond me, but Mrs. F is an immunologist and this is her territory; I’ll try to get a mid-level summary out of her tonight):



As I posted in another thread today, we may not even get a working vaccine at all. It is rare that we find a vaccine for RNA viruses, and we didn’t find a vaccine for any of the other Corona viruses. The Guardian has a bit more:

So I guess it would be wise to have a plan B (which might include making substantial changes to our economic system, and finding ways for people to maintain or even build a healthy immune system while in lockdown).

That being said, after administering those 100.000 100.000.000 doses of vaccine, we’d know for sure whether or not that particular vaccine is safe.

I remember in the last swine flu pandemic lots of doses of vaccine were produced in Germany, and then they were all thrown away (the vaccine was essentially unsafe, and the pandemic was over). But money was made by some.

‘It’s a very unique way of making a vaccine and, so far, no (such) vaccine has been licenced for infectious disease.’

That sounds reassuring.

Edit: wrong number of doses


I’m ok with “which 2/3 get it later”
Let the wealthy and white* take it first and experience any side effects or adverse events. They can afford the medical care to help themselves and it will be better documented.

*said as a white person with decent insurance. We are the ones who can best afford unexpected problems.
Edited to fix spelling




Given a choice, I’ll go with whatever vaccine the Europeans use. I have less faith in the crony capitalist candidate that we’ll get here.


This goes against everything I’ve read. For one, there’s a warned shortage of the glass tubes they need for distribution - a shortage that this administration is (yet again) ignoring. So even if they start manufacturing it in bulk before the tests are done, my understanding is distribution will be the bottleneck.

You’re missing three zeros. And nothing like using around 1/3 of the US population as test subjects. I guess we need to pay attention to who is getting access to it first.

But rich white folk are also those who least need the vaccine. Many front-line/essential workers, those who cannot work from home or have equitable access are poor, racialized minorities. Arguably they deserve the vaccine before rich white people with decent insurance. That is why the process shouldn’t be rushed (so vaccine safety can be assured before it is deployed broadly), and why clinical trials are happening first, and why the first 100 million vaccinated should be those most at risk of dying as well as front-line/essential workers. Of course that’s probably not how it will play out in today’s USA.


But you saw the announcement, we’re ready!