Or we end up with another DINO like Manchin who can hold the party hostage at the behest of his donors, or Sinema who pays lip service to progressive causes like paying people a living wage while tapping into McCain’s phony “maverick” characterization. These folks make it awfully hard not to agree with the sentiment that we no longer live in a marketplace of ideas, but rather a marketplace of realities where perception trumps everything.
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History says that Republicans do about 10 points better during runoffs than they do in the main election. 10 points better than Nov 3 would have been an easy ride.
Yes, because history just writes itself, apparently. Nor do things ever change, so we can always reliable look at stats to understand the future. /s
Again, if people were actually paying attention to what was happening in GA instead of relying on metrics that can and do change, they might have know that this election was not in the bag for the GOP. People actually put in the work to make change rather than assuming it was “lost cause” because of what “history says.”
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Although I would love to be able to point to past patterns as a way of divining future results, rather than guessing what the GOP’s constituency will next try to do to the non-GOP constituency, I believe conventional wisdom has been chewed up, digested, shat out, and set ablaze. Then its ashes were themselves consumed and shat out again. Good heavens, I can’t divine anything from that!
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Health insurance for all and renewable energy.
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History said that Republicans wouldn’t chain the entire fate of the GOP to a guy who had no experience in politics, gave no indication of sharing any of their stated values or policy goals and only registered as a member of their party in 2012.
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They’re still making me happy. It’s way easier to flip an open seat than take down an incumbent, so the republicans are starting with a worse map (the 2016 senate seats are up, and heavily repugs that rode il douche’s coat tails) and they have five retirements, a couple of which might be competitive, particularly if cheetolini uses the same level of tactical acumen as he did with Georgia.
That said, we’re also likely to get more cruzes and hawleys this time around. Which will be even worse if the GQP retakes the Senate.
I’m still bracing myself for the Democratic party to take it on the chin.
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That’s just a recipe for complacency. History is a good, but very flawed, predictor. It took a lot of hard work to defy history on Jan 5, that same hard work will be needed in 2022 & 2024.
I’m sure that Stacey Abrams and friends know this even better than I do, so the work will be put in again.
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What I mean is, it will be a lot of hard work (and no complacency) from now on, because conventional wisdom merely suggests that, in the first place, no one would ever vote for a loudmouthed asshole who was a gameshow host.
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That’s cause that’s not what it’s there for. It can inform us of how things might go, but it’s not to predict how things will go.
That assumes things are meant to go a certain way rather than the way they went. That’s now history.
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I had a Canadian work visa a few years ago for work, in order to be on-site for one of our Canadian clients for a few months.
It required:
a) A local company to sponsor it (our Canadian division)
b) A bunch of paperwork about how I was a specialist in a high tech field with expertise that was not readily available in Canada.
c) A bunch a lawyers
d) Loads more paperwork.
And that was for a non-resident work visa (doing a weekly commute). You would not believe the tax nightmare involved (keeping track of every hour (yes, to the hour) for both working and non-working hours spent in Canada, vs, out of Canada…
And Back To The Topic:
Republicans stepping down only means one thing: They know they are going to be primaried because they are not nutball fascist enough for the new Qnazi party, and they know they are going to lose the primary. Otherwise they would stick it out, or go independent.
That does not bode well. There will be more Q-Anazis elected to replace them.
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A work colleague tells me he and his wife are seriously thinking of relocating to Nova Scotia. He sees it (so far) as being essentially away from everything Planet Earth, and therefore worth investigating. (But there are people there, too, I said.)
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