I wish it were clear he wasn’t going to get re-elected. Sadly, it isn’t at all clear.
If Harper gets rid of supply management I will remember that as the one good thing this otherwise crap government has done. Tired of overpaying for crap milk and cheese just to support a few rich dairy farmers.
I doubt it’s really going to threaten their rural vote. It might tip one or two ridings that were gerrymandered a little too close to the edge.
Never underestimate the resourcefulness of a Conservative asshat.
What I don’t get is if Harper can back out of environmental agreements that previous PMs signed can the next PM not back out of the TPP?
There are two main strongholds for dairy farmers in Canada: Quebec (roughly half of all dairy farms) and Ontario (roughly a third). The others are scattered around the country.
Quebec is largely a write-off for the party, and has been for as long as they’ve been in power. This isn’t going to threaten their results there as they don’t have much to threaten in the first place.
Ontario will be hard to tell. They definitely are vulnerable in the province, but you’d really need a riding by riding breakdown to tell more.
The rest are likely too scattered to make up a significant voting bloc.
Thanks. I’m in Alberta - lots of cattle here, but I guess mostly raised for beef.
The only ridings with any rural component that would be in question here would be the smaller cities or goofy urban/rural split ones.
Indeed, Cory’s made the pronouncement before a couple times, and it hasn’t happened yet. Good luck this time around, though.
308 is currently forecasting a Harper minority. Though, given all the cabinet ministers leaving, it might just be Harper and a 130 hooded figures? I’d like to hope that the NDP and Liberals could work out a coalition, but I don’t think the egos involved will let it happen.
It’ll erode it a tiny bit, but yeah it won’t do much. More’s the pity.
Though Eric’s been on vacation, so 308 is missing the past two weeks of polls and may no longer accurately represent the current lay of the land.
(Of course, we’re also in June and the election isn’t until October. It’s a cliché, but a lot can happen between now and then. Two examples: in the fall of 2005, it looked like Martin would pick up a majority government in any subsequent election. And in the summer of 1993 the PCs, buoyed by Campbell’s personal popularity, were close enough behind the Liberals for it to almost be a statistical tie.)
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