Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/01/25/canada-wuhan-virus-patient-zer.html
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Ungood. Suboptimal.
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In the United States, Wuhan is a big “meh” when compared to the 20-60,000 deaths that occur annually due to the flu, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to become a pandemic.
Get your flu vaccinations people! I always want to write “flu shots” but then I think of this:
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My line about the flu shot is that if my 80-year-old mother-in-law gets the flu and dies, it ain’t gonna be because I was too goddamn lazy to get the flu shot.
I do wish the flu was less of a moving target–I’m reasonably sure I have the flu right now. It’s pretty mild, though, which is one of the advantages of the flu shot.
Edit: I screwed up my own line.
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Most people who get the flu catch it from others who feel kinda okay and didn’t bother to get the flu vaccine.
In essence, there is a high likelihood that you indeed would be the cause of your 80 year old mother-in-law’s death. Herd immunity is a great thing!
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Not sure I follow you. I have done what I can to sensibly reduce the risk to my mother-in-law by getting the flu shot and doing my bit to increase the immunity of the herd. Who also gets the flu shot.
However, the flu vaccine is not as effective as some vaccines because there are multiple strains of the flu, and the vaccine this year may not have been prepared with the strain I (probably) caught. The vaccine does tend to reduce complications even if the recipient gets the flu.
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5th US case confirmed in Arizona as of ~16:30 (eastern). Fuckety fuck.
And the Toronto case has authorities looking to get in touch with everyone on that flight.
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It has an incubation period of ~15 days. You can’t tell whether or not it will be a pandemic for at least another half month.
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@xeni This is a bit like saying, “Over 9000 cars have been manufactured”, when really, you are referring specifically to DeLorians. Coronavirus is a group of viruses that cause respiratory infections, including versions of the common cold. “Wuhan Virus”, or, “Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV”, or even just, “the virus”, would make more sense in this context.
5 million residents left Wuhan before lockdown,
Well, This is a “City Lockdown” with Chinese characteristics.
(Wuhan population is 11.8 Million, so it 40% who “escape”)
Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told a press conference that battling the outbreak was complicated, particularly as it had been discovered that the new virus could be transmitted even during incubation period which did not happen with Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome).
“From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during incubation period,” Ma said, adding that the incubation period lasted from one to 14 days.
“Some patients have normal temperatures and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” he said. So temp screening is useless.
Prediction is about 190,000 contaminated persons by February 4th if the spread keep at the same pace.
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This mornings China data:
Total reported coronavirus cases in China (as of 8.00am Mon Jan 27)
2,762 confirmed
5,794 suspected
51 recovered
80 deaths
Cases in Beijing and surrounding areas :
Beijing: 68 confirmed cases, 2 recovered
- Haidian 16
- Chaoyang 11
- Changping 7
- Tongzhou 6
- Xicheng 5
- Fengtai 4
- Daxing 3
- Shijingshan 2
- Dongcheng 1
- Shunyi 1
- Visitors from outside Beijing 12
Tianjin: 14 confirmed cases
Hebei: 13 confirmed cases, 1 death
Cases in other provinces and regions (listed by number of confirmed cases):
Hubei: 1,423 confirmed cases, 44 recovered, 76 deaths
Guangdong: 111 confirmed cases, 2 recovered
Zhejiang: 104 confirmed cases, 1 recovered
Henan: 83 confirmed cases, 1 death
Chongqing: 75 confirmed cases
Hunan: 69 confirmed cases
Anhui: 60 confirmed cases
Jiangxi: 48 confirmed cases
Shandong: 46 confirmed cases
Guangxi: 46 confirmed cases
Sichuan: 44 confirmed cases
Shanghai: 40 confirmed cases, 1 recovered, 1 death
Fujian: 35 confirmed cases
Jiangsu: 33 confirmed case, 1 recovered
Hainan: 22 confirmed cases
Shaanxi: 22 confirmed cases
Liaoning: 21 confirmed cases
Yunnan: 16 confirmed cases
Heilongjiang: 16 confirmed cases, 1 death
Shanxi: 13 confirmed cases
Hong Kong: 8 confirmed cases
Inner Mongolia: 7 confirmed case
Gansu: 7 confirmed cases
Macao: 6 confirmed cases
Guizhou: 5 confirmed cases
Jilin: 4 confirmed cases
Xinjiang: 4 confirmed cases
Ningxia: 4 confirmed case
Taiwan: 4 confirmed cases
Qinghai: 1 confirmed case
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Please state your sources…
If it’s from mainland, please add a 0 to each row.
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It is from mainland and you can add as many zeroes as you like. These are the same figures that will form the standard report that will be published by foreign media in the next 24 hours. Stick to that if you think it has greater veracity. DYOR
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Here is my own research.
Well, some foreign media are doing something else than copying CCP mouthpiece.
They are applying mathematics prediction from scientists instead of these fabricated under-evaluated numbers.
According to China 11 Million Wuhanese are locked down in the city, but yesterday, they finally admitted 5 Million few away. Again, numbers with Chinese characteristics have no meanings.
The link is on another post up.
With a 2,5 contamination rate, it’s should be about 190,000 person by February 4th
And actual numbers on January 1,800 should have been more 4,000 already.
Here is the source from foreign media with the 2 studies and link to the original report.
and
https://promedmail.org/ to follow something not controlled by CCP
PS: I also have tried to post these to my Wechat and it have been harmonized aka banned.
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The doctor at that link looks to be getting his case numbers from WHO’s IHR Emergency Committee for nCoV. Checking out the Committee’s minutes they’re getting the numbers from…the Chinese authorities.
You are right; part of the numbers are coming from China. It’s by mixing these confirmed case approved by CCP + actual numbers from outside China that they deduct a impossible low count by the CCP.
With a 2.5 contamination rate; the actual case have to be way higher than this.
Taking, for example, how many travelers were coming from Wuhan to Thailand by plane and how many were positive gives a percentage on the contagion on the entire Wuhan population. As these cases are still a low number; error margin is quite important, but even taking the lower possible, it still more than the approve CCP numbers.
At the same time, there are report of death by “pneumonia” in January in Wuhan and not accounted as official “WuhanSARS2.0” (not sure of the official name). This is a game China plays over and over, but they have now some difficulties to hide it if you put AI in front of these.
Another example with road death toll numbers that can only be guessed by crossing hospital official numbers and police official numbers, and again; it do not adds up. But with model already in place it gives a approximation of about 850 person dying on traffic.
(China count death by road only if they passed away during the following week of the accident where worldwide statistics put one month duration)
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The guy you linked to actually says the opposite of that, that with an R0 of ~2.0 the number of confirmed cases reported for January 26 should have been smaller. His explanation for the “abrupt surge” actually observed is that it’s likely from “increasing ascertainment of previously undercounted cases”.
Now that does mean the epidemic is bigger than the official confirmed cases, but both the linked author and the papers he cites offer the same explanation for the initial undercount: that a lot of the cases of infection are mild enough that people don’t seek treatment so the system didn’t catch them.
There is also this site with a realtime map of the infections/deaths.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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This China outbreak is now a major fear in a countries worldwide.
We should all stand our ground to fight this outbreak together.
I remember reading that on elder people the vaccine is less effective, so it is even more important that people around them is vaccinated
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