Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/01/30/first-person-to-person-transmi.html
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So that is a whole possible month, though 2ish weeks most likely that she was contagious and interacting with everyone.
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“just getting started.” This one could be interesting. (Quick guide to doc-speak: “Interesting” is bad. “Fascinating” is worse. “Exciting” means get your track shoes on.)
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And more fun:
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here’s a fun reference: “corona” means “crown”. So does “keter” (כתר).
Those number show a 2.2% death rate? One in fifty. FWTW
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…of the people hospitalized, IRC.
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Keter? Uh-oh.
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That’s about the rate that diabetes kills people in the US.
Of course, that’s assuming the Chinese are being truthful with the numbers.
For people worrying about this, wash your hands more frequently and avoid being around sick people.
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A second person in Chicago has come down with the coronavirus, bringing the total of confirmed coronavirus patients in the US up to six
FTFY in an important way.
BTW Rob Wallace has a nice new essay: “Notes on a Novel Coronavirus.”
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Right. Actual case fatality = Total dying of disease ÷ Total infected with disease (typically over a short time period, like days, weeks, or months; you will also sometimes see the numerator of case fatality expressed as “total dying of any cause”).
As implied by @lizard-of-oz Total infected with disease = Total known infected with disease + total unknown infected with disease. The last term is likely large, and likely means that the 2.2% figure is an over-count.
However, Total dying of disease = total known deaths from disease + total unknown deaths from disease. In a state of acute awareness—such as we are experiencing now—deaths from the novel coronavirus are likely to be accounted for as such, probably at a higher rate than infections are being counted as such (e.g., no such thing as subclinical death 
). There is also the possibility that deaths among people not infected with coronavirus are being mistakenly counted as such, which would tend to inflate the case fatality.
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And avoid crowded places altogheter. Chinese authorities said it is infectious before the symptoms start and symptoms start about 2 weeks after infection. Plenty of time to infect others while healthy.
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Buying stock in soap, hand sanitizer, and alcohol (potable and non- varieties).
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I dunno. Calculating a death rate seems rather premature. If you are infected there is either death or cure. So, many who remain infected have not even yet completed the course of the disease. This doesn’t even consider those who are merely suspect cases and the unknown number that are self-treating or otherwise unreported.
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Yes. The calculations made using media-reported numbers of deaths and media-reported numbers of cases are very quick and dirty, and you do want to account for recovery/exclude unresolved cases.
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If I can survive hospitalization for pneumonia 3 times, I can survive this.
Now if this was Ebola I would be scared because I know what the actual death rate for that is. And the symptoms for that are a hell of a lot worse.
Basically this doesn’t scare me it’s just a new worldwide inconvenience much like the common cold
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We need to build a wall around the US East Coast before it gets here. Someone alert the President. He’s a builder.
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Of course, Ebola is much less easily transmitted than coronavirus. (You basically need to be splattered with blood from a patient.) And coronavirus is less easily transmitted than common flu.
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This is looking a bit sick.
Total reported coronavirus cases in China (as of 6.57pm Fri Jan 31)
9,810 confirmed
15,238 suspected
181 recovered
213 deaths
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CCP knew this one month before but keep this secret.
Chinese Doctor VS CCP Authority, guess who win at each time.
Well done China, one full month to let all spread around.
Anyone still questionning why HKgers are fighting again this dictatorship regime.
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