Impeachment strategies — speculate with me

Pelosi appears to be leading the process towards a rapid articles of impeachment focused on the Ukraine scandal. I am not sure that that is the best strategy. My fear is it will lead to the Senate refusing a trial, or conducting a similarly rapid trial of quitting Trump of any doing. The outcome of that would be Trump claiming exoneration and victory and treating the whole affair similarly to the way he treated the Mueller report. I think that would be a bad outcome.

Rather I think the house should pursue a protracted and extended investigation with maximum publicity, going over every instance of Trump lawbreaking including the Mueller report, the stormy Daniels scandal, the Trump foundation, etc. etc. etc., the Ukraine scandal. The effort should be to extend this process all the way up to the doorstep of the election with no sincere effort to bring this to the Senate. Then if Trump loses the election the impeachment trial will be moot, or if Trump wins but the Senate flips the trial proceed with an unfriendly senate. Or a wide range of other outcomes, all better than the rapid current process.

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I tend to agree that Pelosi’s political calculus, as usual, is off here. A too broad investigation may be problematic, but why give Trump an opportunity to claim exoneration on the myriad of other crimes he’s done? What if something goes sideways on the Ukraine thing? Sometimes the establishment Dems appear to actively try to fuck things up and play into the Reps’ hands.

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The gambit is to create an environment where one wrongdoing is so apparent in the public eye that the R’s have no choice but to denounce T, and then, the D’s will tack on as much stuff as possible for further investigation that they weren’t able to get to last time with Mueller. That way, at least something will stick. This isn’t a new strategy. It’s what the R’s had Ken Starr doing in the 90’s.

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I’m pretty sure the Senate can’t refuse to do a trial if the House votes for impeachment.

I fear that all previous ideas of what can, can’t or must be done in DC are based on outmoded ideas of “rule of law” and “constitutional requirements,” all of which seem to have been thrown out. I suspect Moscow Mitch will be very eager to rush through a kangaroo court so Il Douche can claim vindication, but if those necessary 20 republucan senators look like they may break with him, I look for the turtle to slow walk it right through November 2020.

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Of course, slow-walking it means the impeachment stays in the media and everybody’s minds all the way to the election. Trying to get it all done very quickly is probably the best bet for the GOP.

Also, and this is just me, but I’m pretty sure that Pelosi is better at political calculus than any of us here.

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For all her faults, you are right about this. She is smaaaaaart, and on the inside of DC. She’d love nothing more than to depose the Orange Turd.

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The problem is Pelosi puts political calculus above all else and that gives her a major blind spot. It’s the same mistake as trying to convince the Know-Nothings that Trump does not have their best interests in mind. The reason nothing has “stuck” with Trump has nothing to do with most Americans being too dumb to digest the complexity of his crimes. It’s the blinders that establishment Dems like Pelosi have that allows them to keep making the same mistakes like supporting walking disasters like Biden in the first place. Focusing on each and every crime would by definition draw things out.

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I. Whensoever the Senate shall receive notice from the 100 House of Representatives that managers are appointed on their part to conduct an impeachment against any person and are directed to carry articles of impeachment to the Senate, the Secretary of the Senate shall immediately in- form the House of Representatives that the Senate is ready to receive the managers for the purpose of exhibiting such articles of impeachment, agreeably to such notice.

II. When the managers of an impeachment shall be intro- 101 duced at the bar of the Senate and shall signify that they are ready to exhibit articles of impeachment against any person, the Presiding Officer of the Senate shall direct the Sergeant at Arms to make proclamation, who shall, after making proclamation, repeat the following words, viz: ‘‘All persons are commanded to keep silence, on pain of impris- onment, while the House of Representatives is exhibiting to the Senate of the United States articles of impeachment against ——— ———’’; after which the articles shall be exhibited, and then the Presiding Officer of the Senate shall inform the managers that the Senate will take proper order on the subject of the impeachment, of which due notice shall be given to the House of Representatives.

Lots of shalls. I don’t know if the rules have been amended since.

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I was once pretty sure the Senate could not dodge vetting a presidents supreme court appointment.

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yes - that was my feeling as well. Extending it out, documenting every crime, making it impossible for anyone unwilling to be self-delusional to see the crimes, not for the sake of the Senate trial, although I think it should certainly go to Senate trial, but to expose’ as much as possible in the lead up to the election. The volume of crimes will make it credible that they are simply being diligent, trying to cover everything - it could easily extent to the fall of 2020.

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both these articles state the Senate can not avoid the trial. I would not be surprised one bit if McConnell just refused to act on it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-28/senate-has-no-way-to-sidestep-an-impeachment-enquiry-aide-says

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/impeachment-memo-donald-trump-gop-leadership-senate-trial_n_5d8fd6d6e4b0019647a9a22c?ncid=APPLENEWS00001&guccounter=1

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Today, the Trump administration doubled down on Hillary’s emails. Butter Emails. In response as a counterstrike to their missteps in Ukraine, to try to regain control of the news cycle. I’m not seeing their supremacy here. But who knows.

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If you slow walk it, it becomes the Mueller Report all over again. Trump and his surrogates will bury it under so much bullshit that the House will become aimless, befuddled, and paralyzed. Best to act quickly, stay on message, and let the US Senate sweat it out, if it even comes to a vote there.

A third of the Senate isn’t impervious to independents in their states in the upcoming election. They won’t appreciate the stonewalling of the president’s crimes.

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I could see that too. If they hit him hard and fast with it he may not be able to organize his mind to create his counter-reality.

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I don’t think T is the actual target. He’s the obvious target and the ultimate target. The actual target of the D’s current efforts are the R mob backing him. A fast strike makes them react and then deflect. A slow walk of evidence and persuasion causes the R’s to start jumping ship like scared rats. It’s hard to make a bunch of rats jump off all at once. So far, it’s been a couple here, a couple there. But pretty soon, enough rats will have jumped off, and suddenly there isn’t the collective will to back this corrupt president. It’s THEN that the D’s can go in for the juggalo.

That’s why I am having a hard time calling the slow walk a bad strategy. It isn’t a bad strategy, necessarily. Depends on how it’s executed, which @lava and @LurksNoMore did mention.

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