The read from journalists after the hearing was that Kav’s performance was good, and exactly what he needed to do. An angry partisan response that gave the GOP base and Trump exactly what they wanted to see. And that the public response to the hearing would be just a deepening of partisan feelings with few minds changed.
But there’s been a few inklings that’s not the case. Like the polling, which is lagging a bit behind the hearing. A shift from a split to slight plurality not supporting Kav. With a much, much clearer break with women both in specific polling and in broader election polling showing what might be women breaking off from the GOP over this. A lot of those numbers coming from people who “didn’t know enough”/hand’t made a decision, or registered independants.
Its looks a bit like Kavannaugh’s performance in the hearing may not have played as well as expected. And the noise about the confirmation is mostly just getting people who don’t like what they’re seeing interested and up to speed. Where as they were unconcerned before.
I think maybe your congress critters are seeing something we aren’t. Internal polling or something. Cause there’s been a few surprising things since the hearing.
3 blue dogs who were a risk came out as firm no’s immediately after. Chris Coons came out as a firm no today. Your major potential yes dems have been awful quiet since last thursday.
Flake went from firm yes, to no on the floor without an investigation inside of a few hours. To no if its true a few days ago. Now this. Murkowski and Collins jumped on this whole investigation excuse pretty fucking fast.
Persistent rumors McConnel doesn’t have the votes but needs to lose this and move on fast to limit backlash in Novemeber.
This thing is kind of tilting in a way I didn’t expect.
If you think Jeff Flake is not going to vote for Kava-no, you just aren’t listening to everything he says and does in the end. He’s not a fraction as “noble” as you think.
Even a few dems are going to be stupid enough to go against their party.
Meanwhile in breaking news, apparently the NY Times has a ton of Trump’s tax returns and there is illegel stuff out the ying-yang, not that anyone is going to do anything about it
I wonder if Republican politicians really want to win the Supreme Court and reverse Roe v. Wade. Currently its a singularly potent issue to excite their voters - from what I’ve seen of polling for many people who vote for Republicans its the only issue that matters. But it has nothing to do with tax policy or really anything else their donors actually care about. Even better, it doesn’t directly affect men at all.
Ask yourself - are these politicians better served by finally winning this battle and putting the issue to bed so voters can focus on other things? Or by having “victory” snatched from them by evil feminazi libtards just before a pivotal election? Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if tragically just before the critical senatorial election Kavanaugh is not confirmed and it once again becomes critically important for voters to reelect their republican senators to ensure that the democrats can’t once again steal the Supreme Court from them.
FWIW at least one of those women who confronted Flake in the elevator the other day (Ana Maria Archila) thinks that he seemed genuinely conflicted and his belated deal to allow the FBI investigation was the result of a moment of human connection.
Hard to tell how much of that is genuine and how much is wishful thinking though. I guess we’ll never know for sure unless Flake throws GOP leadership down a giant ventilation shaft.
That is one of the weird things that seems to be burbling around the edges.
Since this confirmation kicked into high gear there’s been a lot of analytical news and politics guy hand wringing about that. It’s had very little impact on the polling for the midterms. And what there is seems to be negative for the GOP.
Supreme court nominations are certainly the central justification at this point for Evangelicals. And they definitely motivate the right wing activist set. But there are very good reasons right now to believe that the general electorate. And the broader GOP base. Don’t really give a shit.
Right now it seems like an open question what this is gonna do for turn out. What little info is out there shows that either success or failure will suppress GOP vote. Noone’s sure which. But its likely to ramp up DNC turnout. While there are good indications that its driving independents to the DNC or at least away from specific GOP candidates in risky seats.
but i don’t think comparing what she has been through with what he is going through distracts from his complaint at all – it just points out that the scale of his situation pales in comparison to hers, and if he has the right to be enraged, she has even more right to be. it’s just insane that the GOP politicians can’t see that. this entire situation is completely of his own making, anyway.
no, and i totally get that. i wasn’t referring to that really, anyway. i was reading his anger at stemming from the general media circus around him and all the constant intrusion from people into his life and his family’s life – all of which stems from his own actions.
I’m thinking Trump might’ve been signaling his acceptance of the loss of Kavanaugh when he expressed some mild alarm about all the “I like beer!” talk. And yeah, it would look better for Trump if K got dumped for lying about the extent of his lying about drinking than about, you know, basically grabbing women by their pussies.
