Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2024/08/02/kamala-harris-surges-ahead-now-beating-donald-trump-in-7-national-polls.html
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That’s what you get when you campaign at The Villages, where 90% of national poll responders live.
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Please tell me that was hyperbolic snark, and not a real percentage?
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Please tell me that isn’t already claimed as a band name!
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“smug”? three times in the last week i had to internally admonish my barnacle encrusted Democratic-party core not to abandon its fundamental worry/depression/hyper-caution for an alien sense of happy optimism. (“down boy down! …don’t you realize all the ways everything could still go utterly wrong!? give a bit more to actblue and constant vigilance!”)
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Please, please, please let this be Responder Bias 
The thought that 43% of the population would still support Trump is vomit inducing. 
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Is this enough to overcome the inherent bias toward the GOP baked into the electoral system (gerrymandering, vote suppression, and the electoral college)?
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I know, it’s appalling. How could such a large number of people support such a vile creature?
It’s important to remember that Trump is the symptom, not the cause. The cause is the large number of people who are so stupid, fascist, misogynistic and/or racist that he is an appealing choice for them. Even after Trump is gone, they’ll find someone else to continue in his stead.
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A frequent misprint for “hypergolic snark”.
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Point A: Never, ever get complacent. Things can change a lot over several months.
Point B: Don’t trust polls, particularly ones that are within the margin of error. It is very much worth noting that every one of the polls linked either is within the margin of error, or does not state a margin of error (I’m looking at you, Redfield & Wilton), in which case a poll should be entirely disregarded as statistically suspect.
In conclusion, vote. Don’t take the foot off the gas pedal until Harris has been sworn in. The GOP is planning to use every dirty trick in the book to install Trump, and it will take not just a squeaker but a landslide to avoid that.
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yes, but what about that dude who has a list of 11 (10? 12??) things that he uses to determine who will win, and he’s only been technically wrong once? I wanna hear what he has to say. Polls, schmolls.
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The silver lining here is that everyone who has tried to be “Trump without the baggage” has failed spectacularly. What they didn’t realize is that the baggage is what the cult members like about him.
But you’re right: the anger, fear, and desire to be led by a strongman felt by 40+% of the American populace isn’t going away anytime soon. The rest of us have gotta keep working and winning.
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Most often seen during intense flamewars.
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Every time someone tries to convince me that a political prognosticator knows what they’re talking about because they accurately predicted the outcome of the last X Presidential elections I try to remember that if you had a big sack of 1000 coins and tossed each one to predict the winner in a two-party race then odds are that at least one of those coins would have correctly called the last 10 elections based on nothing but dumb luck.
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Yes but will they be as popular or uniting as he somehow has miraculously been for the right? It is not the sort of thing you can count on but I kind of expect a collapse and fragmentation of the maga base after Trump dies.
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I was so happy to read this.
More than happy to share the original post also, hope you don’t mind.
Kamala Harris surges ahead — now beating Donald Trump in 7 national polls
Carla Sinclair 9:13 am Fri Aug 2, 2024
Kamala Harris. Photo: Lev Radin/Shutterstock
Kamala Harris is now beating Donald Trump in seven national polls, reports Newsweek, with the vice president ahead of the ex-president by up to 4 points.
Harris’ biggest lead shows her at 49% to Trump’s 45% in a poll that was conducted from July 27 to July 30 by Kos Media’s Civiqs. That propels her past the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Another poll conducted by Canadian-based Léger from July 26 to July 28 that included 1,002 residents of the United States found Harris at 49% and Trump at 46%. Toss in Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third party candidates and her lead jumps to 7 points (48%–41%).
From Newsweek:
Harris had a smaller lead of 2 points over Trump in four other national polls. These include a poll conducted by The Economist and YouGov, where the vice president polled at 46 percent among 1,434 registered voters—a lead within the poll’s 3 percent margin of error.
The other polls were conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Angus Reid, and Florida Atlantic University, and showed Harris leading by 2 points—within each poll’s margin of error. The four polls were conducted between July 23 and July 30.
Harris’ lead was smallest in a poll of 2,223 registered U.S. voters conducted by Morning Consult between July 26 and July 28, where she led Trump by 1 point—47 percent to the former president’s 46 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
As is obvious, a lot can happen in less than two weeks. And we still have three months (94 days, to be exact) until Election Day. So, no use in getting smug about it, but I’ll gleefully take our wins where we can get them.
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… and half the polls could just be wrong
That’s another thing that can happen 
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Update: it’s 13 things, and here’s the guy today talking on CNN about all this:
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