Moscow might have nukes in Crimea, hacked EU cables warn


#1

Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2018/12/19/eu-cable-russia-nukes.html


#2

#3

Where nuclear bombs are deployed doesn’t matter a lick offensively and, as a defensive measure, there’s very little to be advantaged by having them in a contested area when retaliation, if it is to come, is better delivered from further away. It does, however, matter quite a bit for purposes of what actions by the other side can be viewed (by each side) as an attempt to eliminate the nuclear deterrent. And that raises the stakes quite a bit.

Of course, the lesson here is simple: if you ever get yourself some atomic bombs never, ever give them up. A nuclear-armed Ukraine would have never had to yield a meter of territory.


#4

Does this change the calculus significantly? I think people often forget about Kaliningrad - nukes deployed there can take out Europe with very little warning:

i’m still waiting on my tax stamp sadly


#5

I don’t think it changes very much. The US/NATO nuclear second-strike capability is enormous. Russia cannot hope to every take out anything close to all of it, and even leaving 20% means we’ve got 1,000+ warheads that can be delivered. And it’s only a couple of hundred miles from the center of the Crimea to Russia proper, so it hardly changes the warning time.

Now, I’m a big believer in the Waltzian view of Deterrence Theory, so none of this really alarms me that much, but even if it ever went really, really bad – the “where” of atomic bombs doesn’t matter much in the final analysis.


#6

Yeah especially since most of Russia’s populous cities are on the side close to Europe.


#7
  1. Trump’s work for Putin is effectively done: throw a spanner in the works of “western democracy” and sow havoc/uncertainty in the world’s economy.

  2. Is there really no strategic advantage of: spreading nuclear targets over wider space and, stationing your nuclear targets in a space that is not really “yours” so you don’t care if it is retaliated against?

Seems to me we are in the kremlin/kgb’s “gravy” course of the meal. They ARE playing the long game. Always have, always will.


#8

Regardless of the geographic placement of their nukes it’s Putin’s power moves that emboldens him to do more. He’ll hopefully never have a better stooge at the helm of the US government. Coupled with 45’s grab for all he can get and the former republican party eating at the same pig trough we have no one to stop a very bright and vicious man. Putin is winning and much of America smugly thinks they’re just sticking it to liberals, lefties and intellectuals. What a ship of fools.


#9

Considering that “the great deal maker” just handed Syria to Putin and screwed the Kurds (yet again), Putin is going to have a very Happy Christmas and a Merry New Year.


closed #10

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