Oddsmakers in the UK say Trump has a 50/50 shot of being impeached in the next 12 months


Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2017/12/04/oddsmakers-in-the-uk-say-trump.html


That seems optimistic since the GOP has shown it will stand behind their own guys no matter what and the earliest we can reasonably expect to have a Democrat-controlled Congress in place is January 2019.


If I won that bet, I wonder if it would be enough to cover my taxes the following year?


Let us know when the Las Vegas bookies are giving these odds. UK bookies maybe don’t quite grasp the lack of nuance of the US GOP.


It would be interesting research to compare the predictive power of US betting on US political events vs. foreign betting on US political events. Domestic betters have a better understanding but also more emotional attachment. I wouldn’t be surprised if foreigners were better.


What are the odds that Putin takes him out? Or Melania?


I’d put it at 50/50 that Trump goes in the next 12 months, but I don’t think he will be impeached. He’ll probably be encouraged to retire and be able to be called President Trump for the rest of his life, or if that fails removed under the 25th amendment. President Pence will then pardon him, Gerald Ford style.

Excuse me, I need to go and wash my hands having typed certain word combinations.




This. Every republican with any stake the matter already got on the pedophile bandwagon. Who cares about a little light treason?


Impeachment has nothing to do with guilt, and everything to do with politics. If Democrats sweep the midterms, it’s possible, but with today’s congress, he could kill and eat babies on live TV. Maybe there would be some tut-tut.


I doubt it. He’ll be so busy, what with eliminating abortion, homosexuality, women’s rights, anti-pollution laws, and all the other stuff he’s been trying to legislate against (often with success) his whole political career.

Here’s a long read on President Pence, one of the few guys on the planet who makes Trump look like a better option… the GOP will collectively orgasm with delight if Trump is impeached.


I’m not saying Pence would be better than Trump, I’m saying that the GOP will want to save face when the alternative is a court case revealing all their skeletons in the closet (hopefully not literally, but I can’t confidently believe that anymore).


Everything Donald Trump does is a shock. He finds ways of reaching new lows when people already thought he hit rock bottom. Everything he does sows chaos around him.

I asked myself, what is the absolutely most shocking and chaotic way Trump could leave office, dealing the maximum amount of damage to the nation as he went.

Based on this, I predict Trump will kill himself in the Oval office (perhaps accidentally, face down in a mountain of cocaine).

I tell myself: that’s absurd. I have plenty of first and second hand experience with suicidal ideation and behaviours, and I’ve never seen any evidence of suicidal thoughts or behaviours from Trump. The closest was that one day Eric said Trump was depressed.

There’s simply no reason to think that this will happen. So when it does happen, people will be all the more shocked.

I wonder what odds I can get on this.


I usually discourage speculation, yet am some how compelled to hope this is true.


I’m pretty sure most of 45’s decisions and actions have been put into his head by Pence, the Heritage Foundation and the like.

Edit: Policy related actions. Not all the wide eyed, lunatic stuff.


I’d say 70/30 chance of rage quit in the next 18 months.


Hey, anybody else remember that time Donald Trump only had a 28% chance of winning at best?

Good times. Good times.


No UK bookie will give odds on someone dying. The reasoning behind it is that it might encourage murder to win the bet.


That is a very good policy.


Speaking as a guy who took heat for predicting a Trump win here on bOINGbOING: I predict he will be narrowly re-elected, unless he is impeached - in which case I predict a New Dark Age under President Pence that will make the Trump years of misogyny, classism and environmental destruction seem like a relative paradise.

Please, please, please prove me wrong. But it seems inevitable to me.