Ongoing coronavirus happenings

Well, there are a hella lotta CPAP machines out there, way more than ventilators, so the supply issue would be less problematic.

Conversion and testing though… dang. And training the QAQC testers would be a bottleneck, at least initially.


I had not even considered this aspect. The impact in deep red mining counties will be virtually immeasurable. The fact that they are more likely to buy into the hoax thing will make it even worse.


The political fallout thread is, technically, not just US. I’m not sure what level of trust is needed to actually move posts, or who other than @orenwolf could. Maybe @ldobe and a few others?


Before it gets locked again, I’d like to point out that there IS another thread more appropriate to a lot of the OT posts here:


This topic is temporarily closed for at least 4 hours due to a large number of community flags.

I moved the OT posts. Discourse seems to have an issue with lots of flags keeping this thread locked, so it will just lock again right after I reopen it until @orenwolf or another mod cleans those flags up. Sorry, folks.


Way too positive.


Thanks for reopening, @orenwolf. Thanks for splitting, @ficuswhisperer.

Came here to post a paper. All emphasis mine.

Inferring COVID-19 spreading rates and potential change points for case number forecasts

As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key epidemiological parameters and how they change as first governmental intervention measures are showing an effect. By combining an established epidemiological model with Bayesian inference, we analyze the time dependence of the effective growth rate of new infections. For the case of COVID-19 spreading in Germany, we detect change points in the effective growth rate which correlate well with the times of publicly announced interventions.
Thereby, we can (a) quantify the effects of recent governmental measures to mitigating the disease
spread, and (b) incorporate analogue change points to forecast future scenarios and case numbers.
Our code is freely available and can be readily adapted to any country or region.

Results, paraphrased: measures in Germany seem to be working, but we need more time. Particularly,

We find first evidence for a successive decrease of the spreading rate in Germany around March 8 and around March 16, which significantly reduced the magnitude of exponential growth, but was not sufficient to turn growth into decay. The development in the coming two weeks will reveal the efficiency of the subsequent social distancing measures.

Also, they are very convinced of their results - this is a bold statement coming from some top of their field modelers:

In general, our analysis code may help to infer the efficiency of measures taken in other countries and inform policy makers about tightening, loosening and selecting appropriate rules for containment

Paper pdf, as always during these times: preprint, so not yet peer reviewed.


Warning: if you aren’t a experienced modeler with a strong epidemiological background, do not just apply this and come to your own conclusions, and please, pretty please with sugar on top and eternal damnation in the deepest frozen hell mythology has to offer don’t post your own conclusions “somewhere” on the web. If you are really that good, and find something interesting, contact the authors. And share your code.

Don’t meddle. Help, if you can. But fucking don’t meddle. Please.


(Not a great time to be taking estrogen blockers.)


One of the other tidbits I found while I was looking into particulate sizes the other day is that men spew significantly more droplets than women, whether breathing, talking, coughing, or sneezing.


In English: King Carl XVI Gustaf’s address to the nation

King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden spoke about the coronavirus crisis and the road ahead in a televised address to the nation.


In The Boonies

More rural areas are going to watch their case counts climb everywhere, and while Trump has fantasies about riding in on a white horse to save the MAGA Race from the liberal cooties, it’s going to be a bit hard to do given the general lack of medical infrastructure in those places. More masks and ventilators are good, but you still need doctors and hospital beds, and none of those things can actually stop the pandemic.

Lara Putnam@lara_putnam

Pennsylvania today (April 3) has over 8,400 known cases of COVID-19. Some of the county-level variation reflects lags in testing, but it’s also about differences in mobility, connection, density, labor, & vulnerability. TL;DR: We should really, really worry about Luzerne.

View image on Twitter


9:44 PM - Apr 3, 2020

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29 people are talking about this

Just one place, but cases in Luzerne increased from 484 (shown) to 648. The population of Luzerne county is 320,000. Philadelphia has about 5 times the population and about 5 times the cases, meaning the counted infection rate (depends on who/how many are being tested) is about the same. It isn’t going to stop at the urban hellhole borders.


Copper [surfaces] behave somehow differently, though the process needs two hours (!):


This hits close to home:


For those, like myself, who struggle with reading these things through tweets…


the media are confused about what constitutes “news” about the pandemic

that is not news, it has been happening almost every day for weeks

this here is news