Bonus fact mentioned in the article: the lawyer who also got sick and ended up on a ventilator is a counsel of Roy Moore
Just make sure the seal is airtight.
âItâs reverse Lincoln*â is basically the motto of modern Republican presidencies.
* substitute any honorable and competent crisis president here.
At least theyâll have trouble finding congregating crowds to mass murder. Except the crowds full of protesting idiots too much like themselves to murder.
They are all taking it as a call to violence, probably because it is. The only question is how many will have the courage to act on their deepest desires.
For starters, all the assholes who showed up during the gun protest in Richmond, Va. a while back with Rush in the armored vehicle.
Also, some neighborhoods are not monolithic. Morgan Park has a stark dividing line: Longwood Drive. The western half of Morgan Park is significantly wealthier than the eastern half (though much more integrated now than it was 40 years ago). I wouldnât be a bit surprised if the west half has a considerably lower death rate, more on par with Beverly Hills or Mt. Greenwood.
Imagine a whole agro-economy based on manual work done by people moving freely between EU member states.
Then imagine closing some relevant borders.
Yeah. Really.
Yeah, but what do fake television âdoctorsâ and a Hoover Institute lawyer whose read a book about âevolutionary lawâ have to say about it?
âGlitchesâ sounds so much better than âtotally predictable clusterfuckâ.
Which is still better than âscrewing people we hate by design.â
I hope theyâre being honest when they say they can fix it, because Iâm depending on that.
Ah; now weâre off in bug vs feature territory.
Thanks for this. I reposted with credit in the WHO thread, since some are discussing when to âopenâ the economy.
So, I donât doubt for a minute that easing up quarantine before we have the testing capacity to maintain suppression with public health methods would be an unmitigated disaster.
However there are a couple of issues with this article
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The guy who made the model is a Mechanical Engineer, not an epidemiologist. Now, I wouldnât say thereâs anything inherently wrong with that, because heâs just as qualified to train a âmachine learningâ model as anyone else (including me), but that brings us to
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I think this is not a great arena to be using machine learning models in. I say this as someone who develops computer models, including physical, semi-physical, and machine learning models, for a living, and is just as qualified to discuss them as the guy who made this model. In an epidemiologistâs statistical model, they know what every term in that model means, and why itâs there. Based on this, they also have the domain knowledge to know whether the results the model gives them make sense. A neural network machine learning model, like this guy is using, is a black box. You donât understand what itâs doing, or how itâs doing it. These models are also extremely prone to overfitting, and it is very hard to avoid it. Most current methods just have some heuristics, not statistically sound ways of insuring that you arenât overfitting.
In short, I donât doubt the conclusion, but I would rather hear it from an epidemiologist, using a statistical model they understand, than from someone who not only has no relevant domain knowledge, but also thinks that this is an appropriate use case for a neural net. My general impression is that people in industry who are actually trying to use these kinds of models for manufacturing tend to have a better appreciation of their potential pitfalls than engineering professors at universities do.
Thank you. This must be emphasized.
Kinda cathartic. And heâs making some good sense here and there between the f-bombs and genitalia metaphors.
I like this guy. Just needs to make sure to wipe that camera (and the steering wheel, and the dashboard) down with a Clorox wipe afterward.
