ROFL. I drive through the Holland tunnel all the time. The PAPD stationed there are shooting the shit and looking at their phones. About the only thing that gets their attention is rental trucks. And there’s no one looking at vehicles leaving the city via GWB, or any of the E River crossings.
Fast enough that very few NON-famous ne’er-do-wells pull it off successfully, even in NYC. You’re actually about as likely to escape from jail (not prison; it’s not the same thing).
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Now imagine if this was a poor black male under house arrest for trying to buy a nickel bag asking for similar concessions (or maybe to be able to travel one or two towns over to find work).
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Exactly so.
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Do they have his resources? Can you cite how this actually works? As I understand it, these weren’t really developed for flight risks, they were for parole, a low level of punishment cheaper than prison. The person is restricted in their movements, confined, as part of an agreement. They aren’t in prison, but can’t go out and enjoy freedom.
You’re NOT going to be able to assert that an anklet is not a barrier to Manafort’s escape, squirm as you like. If nothing else, it’s one extra step he’ll have to take and each step takes time, which is the resource he’'ll be lacking most.
Is it possible he’ll slip the anklet? Certainly. And? It’s STILL easier to escape without one than with, or he wouldn’t bother removing it in the 1st place, now would he?
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Sorry, not a counterpoint, silly. An anklet IS NOT a fence you can easily jump over.
Once again, if it’s not a barrier to escape, why bother removing it? Well?
The guy wants a drink.
Possibly his preferred way to deal with stress.
If it can be removed or disabled, it’s not a significant enough barrier to escape. Like I said upthread, these are designed for parole with limited freedoms, not keeping someone from fleeing the country. A parole officer does not keep someone from leaving the state or country, they report the absence.
Play it out, by what means do you see him apprehended, from the moment it’s disabled or removed?
It would never happen, but if it comes out (as part of Mueller’s investigation) that it’s likely he paid for them with dirty money I’d love to see the NYPD seize some of Trump’s assets in New York City under civil forfeiture law. The one most likely to cause Trump to have an aneurysm if seized would of course be Trump Tower, though having Florida police seize Mar-a-Lago under the same rationale would also cause him to blow his stack, more like Donald Duck than Donald Trump.
If a high profile fugitive like Manafort were reported to be on the run, I bet the PAPD officers stationed there would be a whole lot more attentive. What do you think would happen to any officers who let him slip through their fingers through inattention? I’m not saying the situation would be like the manhunt for the Boston Marathon bombing suspects, but it would likely lead to increased scrutiny on all ways Manafort could use to leave the city: car, train, boat, plane, subway, etc.
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He’d very likely be nailed at the first portal out of the country, of whatever nature, unless he can arrange the aforesaid Russian sub.
He’s under active investigation; the FBI is absolutely going to be monitoring his credit/bank accounts and movements. The ankle bracelet is kind of a sign of that =). And yes, 3 FBI agents monitoring a known flight risk 24/7/365.25 is quite common.
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only if the alternative is an anal implant.
If I was going to flee the United States, I would probably also offer my real estate in the US as collateral.
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Um, your answer is no.
Screw that - they should make him wear a neck/torc monitoring device. So everyone can be sure he’s being compliant.
I am curious though, how hard is it to leave the country by boat? Lets ignore the sub, let’s say that, as mentioned upthread, he has a friend with a yacht. Let’s assume he manages to get out. How much scrutiny is a boat in some standard dock going to get? Or just set up a few tens of feet off shore of a park or something? To what extent can the FBI and NYPD shut down and investigate every personal craft which is trying to leave New York? Not even internationally either, because they could just pop up into New England and turn into the Atlantic from there, so every vessel leaving the immediate area of NYC.
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Not all that hard. Again, the failed assumption here is that no one will notice he’s missing; I’d say that’s a LOT easier, more convenient, and more likely without an anklet than with one. Would you aver otherwise?
Those saying “but it can by bypassed, so it’s useless” should NEVER use door locks. After all, can’t you “bypass” one with a brick to a window? Why waste money on locks?
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I definitely agree on the premise, and I think that @Urbanacus is with us too, it’s just a matter of arguing over how much the bracelet is an impeding factor. Maybe it’s the fact that I watch too many talks on security, locks, tamperproofing, tamper-evidenting, etc. but My guess is that bracelets aren’t incredibly effective with a bit of research. Question is whether or not Manafort bothered to research how to compromise them 
