Oy. Sounds like a Class 4 Nutjob. I’m too nice, I don’t know how I’d get out of what must have been some painful conversations. I don’t envy you.
That’s a whole archetype.
My deepest sympathies.
Apparently, GA is in play, too (at least according to the local ATL npr station).
You will notice from my map that I gave GA to Clinton. (I’m assuming that at some level of continued awfulness from Trump, eventually ATL just overwhelms the rest of the state). Probably a better bet than me giving her Utah and Missouri, anyway.
D’oh! I sorry I didn’t click!
I’d bet that Johnson makes good inroads into the redder ATL suburbs and red cities in the rest of the state, drawing off just enough votes to let her swing it here.
But that might have to change my voting strategy a bit…
If he’s really polling at 1% with African Americans, that’s a 1/3 of the entire state that will vote against him. He’ll lose Savannah, Macon, Augusta…
He can’t win if he’s only winning non-college educated white men.
Should we revisit this?
Still fairly happy about my map. But Georgia and Utah were probably a bit optimistic.
I’m late to the party, but here’s mine:
My tossup predictions, in order of confidence:
- CO goes blue because Johnson splits the Republican vote
- NM goes blue because Johnson splits the Republican vote, and he’s from there
- IA goes blue because it is historically pro-union and religious. Religious conservatives are not dickish to people for no reason in the same way Trump is.
- OH goes red because Clinton hasn’t really reached out to the white working class.
- NH goes red because of anti-Clinton sentiment
- WI and Mi both go blue because they’re historically blue
- VA goes blue because of politically-active people, including affluent blacks
- NC goes red because of history
- PA goes blue because I’m assuming increased urban turnout over previous elections
- FL goes red because… I’m not sure why. Just to balance out PA because I wasn’t really sure there either
- NV goes blue because I had to pick a color.
Clinton slips in under the wire at 281-257.
I tend to call these races way closer than they are when I pick state-by-state, so if I just pick an electoral total, I’d call this contest 310-227-1 Clinton/Trump/Johnson.
#UPDATE: This thread is now about predicting the outcome on November 8th.
My prediction: We will know Hillary won before the CA votes are even counted.
They will call the election for Clinton as soon as the North Carolina polls close.
I would love for that to happen. I’d love to watch a sea of blue wash over the US from right to left as the polls close, I really would. I’m sure that’s not going to happen, unfortunately, and will be happy to settle for “enough blue to keep Trump from winning.”
NM and UT results will be among the last to be reported.
Some Comedy Central show will take heat for using the Edison film from 1903 “Electrocuting an Elephant” (NSFPETA) for a comical metaphor for what Trump’s done to the Republican Party as it depicts cruelty to animals.
Edit 19-10-2016: acknowledging 2 independent senators, observing 2012 vs 2016 polls
Senate: 49 R - 49 D - 2 I
EV: 318 D - 220 R (Still low, but GOP has upside potential. I bet on the states with names beginning and ending with the same vowel to give EVs to the Republican Party.)
Randy Bachman has a win-win royalty situation as one campaign HQ will blare BTO’s “You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet” and another will blast The Guess Who’s “American Woman.” Don’t know which side will play what.
Melania will be delegated with delivering a concession speech but John Barron/Meredith McIver will reprise a stunt and insert lyrics from Romeo Void’s “Never Say Never”.
This is what I’m going for:
It’s off from what’s shown here, because I’m also predicting that the Nebraska 2nd will go blue again.
Is anyone following what’s going on with Evan McMullin in Utah? Will Clinton win Utah? Will McMullin win it?
He’s Mormon, isn’t he?
Looks like he’s turning it into a competitive state, but I think Trump will still win, even if it’s with not much over 1/3 of the vote. McMullin seems to be taking his support from Johnson more than Trump.
The target is still an absolute majority in the electoral college, isn’t it? It’s not the candidate with the most that wins if their total is less than 270?
I think Johnson will get one electoral vote, and maybe one will go to Pence or whomever, but Clinton will win this handily. The McMullin thing is just an interesting wrinkle. The Koch brothers put him up to take votes away from Trump, because they can’t control Trump. Instead of solid Trump, Utah is turning into a three-way tossup between Clinton, Trump, and McMullin.
I pretty much agree with that. PA, VA and NC going for Clinton would be enough to foreclose all possible paths for Trump, and I think the only one that’s even questionable at this point is North Carolina.
Actually, PA closes half an hour later, so make it 8 pm eastern.
It’s a boring sort of answer, but I have little reason to predict anything differently than what the polling averages say: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
Relative to that map, I would expect Iowa would flip if Trump continues his unhinged behavior. Probably won’t go much further than that. I’d like to think GA is a possibility, but somehow I doubt it. Same with Texas.
ETA: I forgot about Arizona. It has gotten quite close, so maybe put that one in the same category as Iowa.
He could quite easily lose Alaska too, which would be funny.
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