Interesting conjectures, I like it! One thing that I disagree with: I don’t think Rubio delegates could ever go to Kasich. The Rubio people are going to be the ones trying to get those same types of defections from Cruzians and Carsonites and the 4 Bush delegates. Potential stalemate is why outside names like Ryan get brought up.
Kasich may be well spoken and somewhat reasonable – although I think he’s really an odd dude, isn’t he? Just, his manner. But if Trump gets a few defections of his own and Kasich is offered something, I wonder.
It’s perfectly reasonable to have an immigration policy which prioritizes concern for existing wage levels in the host country. If that is automatically “racist” then, basically, so are 90% of the countries on the globe.
Ted Cruz is baffled as to why Jeb Bush’s supporters don’t trust him.
In January, Cruz mocked Trump’s plan to deport immigrants and said “we don’t live in a police state” where people get deported just for being undocumented. He stated he’d only be interested in deporting those who are apprehended.
Last night on O’Reilly, Cruz stated that actually, no, he’d deport every single undocumented immigrant in America, unlike Trump, who would “allow those 12 million people to become U.S. citizens”.
Most of the working and middle class people I know are delighted with $1.60 a gallon gasoline, and those who heat their homes with oil or gas are loving the current prices, too.
There are lots of Bush supporters, enough that some will go in every direction Someone who was supporting for Bush will back Trump. The question is the size of that group. What I read today on CBC is that about 1/10th of Bush supporters are backing Trump (based on polling). That’s certainly not nothing. With about 1/5th backing Rubio, Bush’s exit narrows Trump’s lead over Rubio by less than 1%.
You dislike Trump too? I really don’t get where his base is, to be honest. Other than people who just like his unfiltered rhetoric, as they find it refreshing somehow… or maybe it’s conservatives who felt the tea party revolution in the GOP was never accomplished and are still pissed of at the party… or they think he’s a good business man?
As a conservative, do you have a particular guy you like in the horse race? Personally, even the guy who is considered the most moderate (Kasich) is too far out, but that’s just me…
South Korean politics are certainly part of the problem. I believe in the mid-60s, they were still rather authoritarian, so there’s that. I think the women were pissed off because they weren’t consulted and they feel like they were just sort of political pawns in the economic chess game going on in the region. I don’t blame them for being angry. This whole thing seems politically expedient for a number of parties, but these ladies aren’t one of the parties…
I don’t think that Republican primary voters like ‘moderates’ (which, yes, Kasich isn’t, but…) any more than Democratic ones do.
Of course I’d like to see someone I consider reasonable from the other side, but that kind of just means that I want the least Republicany Republican to be their candidate.
Although, I’d really just like to see a grown-up nominated from their party. I know I keep harking back to Huntsman, but he was smart, non-provincial, non-science denying. But I guess that sort of guy doesn’t appeal to the angry man with the Confederate flag on his house.
I just don’t understand what the tie-up is between people who don’t like the idea of taxes and think that private enterprise is king, and science-denying, misogynistic, racist social conservatism.
It turns out a sizable hunk of the GOP’s base was motivated more by dog-whistles than anything else. Trump’s dispensed with the dog whistles and is just open about being a bigoted angry white man. Given how much Trump has Godzilla-stomped all over various conservative sacred cows, the arms race of conservative ideological purity that other candidates have been obsessing over was pointless - most of their voters really just care about feeling like they’re better than the brown people/women/gays.
You know… I think there is some validity to that, but I do think something else is going on here, other than just Trump blowing the same old dog whistles. I think at least some of this is backlash against the party itself. I have no prove of that, but I don’t think m any republicans have been happy with their party for a while now. It would be much easier if it were just the racist/sexist/homophobic/Islamophobic vote and that’s part of it, but there is a larger story here, too, I think.
Well, that was Eric Erickson’s assessment, so you are in good company (not that I think of Erickson as good company in general, but his assessment of how angry Republicans are with the Republican party is probably trustworthy enough).
I think people underestimate how nuanced and varied support for Trump might be, though. I recall reading Trump endorsements from white surpremecists. The thing is, they don’t actually like Trump - he’s too cozy with Jews. But they are willing to compromise on that point. Since we are used to think of overt racists as foaming and rabid, it’s weird to think of the making such an assessment, but it reminded me that people think all kinds of crazy things.
Some people have got to be supporting Trump because he is being honest, even if they think the things he is being honest about are awful things. There are probably lots of other weird calculations like that, where one person agrees we need a wall at the southern border as is willing to accept his other policies to get that but another person really thinks we need a fiscally republican candidate who won’t try to overturn abortion and they are willing to accept persecution of Muslims as a price for that.
I also think there must be at least some Americans who saw an election coming that was supposed to be Bush vs. Clinton and just latched onto the biggest ‘fuck you’ candidate they could find.
Even when faced with the rest of the GOP field, Cruz is an absolute snake in the grass. Coldly calculated, ruthless, will pander to anyone if he thinks he’ll get even the smallest benefit–that guy strikes me as an awful human being. I remained flummoxed that any evangelicals are willing to stand for the guy. Hell, even his own kid doesn’t like being near him.
My friends who shoot at the weekly NRA meetup (which is the cheapest, safest way to get your range time if you’re not a LEO) say the ultra-right-wing nutballs that infest that venue are all far more sympathetic to Sanders than Clinton. They say they’d just shoot Sanders with a regular lead round, they’re saving the white phosphorus for Hillary. Seriously!
Obviously this could change pretty quickly, and equally obviously this is just the local situation near me, but around here Clinton has been so thoroughly demonized the hardcore Republican base would rather have an avowed socialist in charge.
Sure, but it’s pretty crazy to suppose that Trump would ever provide that. He’s got a long record of doing everything in his power to drive wages down for the little guys, up to and including hiring illegal immigrants. It only takes about five minutes of research to realize that he’s never, ever given a damn about other peoples’ wages in the past, other than to try to drive them down lower than his own. Why do they think he’ll suddenly change after being elected? I really don’t get that.
The rage vote thing, and the willingness to vote for a strongman, I totally get that part. Don’t share the enthusiasm, but I do get it.
