The problem is that Ukraine is not Afghanistan. Rebels cannot melt into the hills, reform, and wage insurgency from the country. Ukraine is a modern country. Kiev is 2.8 million urban dwellers. They want to go to work, not hide in the hills. All Russia has to do to make Kiev surrender is turn off the heat.
This wont even be like '90s Yugoslavia; the Russian army are not Serbian irregular forces. This will be Iraq 2003.
Darkest Timeline Forecast
If Russia gets strategic domination, Ukraine will fold, like Poland 1939, like France 1940. A puppet regime will be installed, with either a tight “Belarus-style” alliance or, worst case, full incorporation (a la Chechnya) into the Soviet Russian state. As a final slap, even with the puppet regime/governor installed, Luhansk/Donestsk will still remain Russian territory and not returned to Puppet Ukraine.
Arguably even worse is if Russia does not take over entire country, and “only” gobbles up half of Ukraine (to the Dneipr), but then annexes it, and establishes “Novorossiya” as a new province of Russia.
