3 posts were split to a new topic: Iran & North Korea: BFFs or Frenemies
From the BBC liveblog:
In a TV address at 05:55 Moscow time (02:55 GMT), Russia’s Vladimir Putin announced a “military operation” in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region
Putin said Russia was acting in self-defence. He urged Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their weapons. Any intervention by outside powers against Russia would get an “instant” response, he said
Russia has hit Ukrainian infrastructure with missiles, Ukraine says. It also says it has shot down Russian aircraft - which Moscow deniesConvoys of troops and tanks have entered Ukraine from all directions. One convoy has crossed from Belarus at a point to the north of the capital Kyiv. Another has entered from Crimea in the south, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014
At least eight people are reported to have been killed
There are long traffic jams as residents try to flee the capital Kyiv. Other residents have sought shelter in metro stations. BBC correspondents say that although people expected an attack, the scale of the invasion has taken them by surprise
Ukraine has declared martial law. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has urged devastating sanctions, including banning Russia from the international Swift bank transfer system
Oil prices have jumped to more than $100 a barrel for the first time in seven years. The Russian currency, the rouble, has plunged to an all-time low against the dollar and euro; UK markets have plunged
There has been a chorus of condemnation from world leaders: US President Joe Biden said the war would bring “catastrophic loss of life”; UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he was “appalled” by the “unprovoked attack”
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I’d have thought an immediate sanction that would have immediate effect on Russia is to block the sale of all civilian aerospace equipment and services to the country.
Russia produces no long-range airliners, it’s short range planes are vastly inferior to those from Airbus and Boeing. Aeroflot’s fleet is largely Western built as are those belonging to most smaller airlines; and even the few airliners Russia does manage to build use Western engines and avionics.
It’s a big country, and airliners need a lot of maintenance - let’s see how long it can last when they can’t fly around it.
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That will hurt in the short term. In the long term co-operation with China will solve the problem.
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My heart is with the people of Ukraine, who are innocents in Putin’s manufactured war. I can only hope they turn Ukraine into Russia’s new Afghanistan.
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51st state of America /s
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That sounds dubious - but if anyone would do this, it would be Russia.
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Apparently reports of this started in May 2015
Edited to correct date
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Belarus is the great betrayer. As bad as Mussolini attacking France in 1940.
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The problem is that Ukraine is not Afghanistan. Rebels cannot melt into the hills, reform, and wage insurgency from the country. Ukraine is a modern country. Kiev is 2.8 million urban dwellers. They want to go to work, not hide in the hills. All Russia has to do to make Kiev surrender is turn off the heat.
This wont even be like '90s Yugoslavia; the Russian army are not Serbian irregular forces. This will be Iraq 2003.
Darkest Timeline Forecast
If Russia gets strategic domination, Ukraine will fold, like Poland 1939, like France 1940. A puppet regime will be installed, with either a tight “Belarus-style” alliance or, worst case, full incorporation (a la Chechnya) into the Soviet Russian state. As a final slap, even with the puppet regime/governor installed, Luhansk/Donestsk will still remain Russian territory and not returned to Puppet Ukraine.
Arguably even worse is if Russia does not take over entire country, and “only” gobbles up half of Ukraine (to the Dneipr), but then annexes it, and establishes “Novorossiya” as a new province of Russia.
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Apparently Russia supplies about 22% of the titanium used by Rolls Royce (for aircraft engine manufacture) which is going to have to be sourced from somewhere else.
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A review of abuses…
I have friends who live near Odessa, and over in Chisinau and Balti. So, fighting is still kind of far from them, but I still worry…
ETA: Crap, now I’m hearing about the attacks on Odessa.
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It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. Turkey is in a position to actually do something here, and this is more immediate and meaningful (at least symbolically) than sanctions.
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The invasion of Iraq proved beyond any shadow of doubt precisely that. The worse thing for a totalitarian regime is to try to get nukes and fail. Once they obtain warheads and the means to deliver them the game changes completely
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I’m sorry, perhaps I confused you. I’m not here for “hot takes” or long winded break downs of “why this won’t work” and what the “darkest timeline” is. I’m aware of all those already. I’m here for fucking hope and to let the people of Ukraine - and the citizens of Russia who have NOTHING to do with any of this and are also puppets to the madness of a murdering dictator - know that I am thinking of them.
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News reports of 6 dead from bombing in Podolsk Oblast (not the city, which is just south of Moscow), so this is much closer to the Moldovan cities of Chisinau and Orhei than it is to Odessa.
This is dangerously close to friends I know over there, but if the path they took was from the ocean, that possibly affects folks I know in Nikolaevka village (Balabanovka). Actually, much closer to the coastline than the village boundaries.
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