A-fucking-men to the premise of the article, and let me ignore @fluffitfluffit’s attempt to derail the topic.
The Dems permanently fucked themselves after the '72 election. They convinced themselves that people voted for the abomination that was Richard M. Nixon because the Dems were TOO LEFT. This caused Hillary and Co to go to the middle and Guiliani and crew (yes, he was a McGovern supporter) to go to the right. I hope they don’t make the same mistake again.
Unfortunately, I’ve not heard any good proposal about how to go on that conversion.
All I hear now and then is the same thing as with Brexit; if only the left was willing to engage with the “real” workers and “real” people and just sell them a bit of xenophobia, just throw them a bone with some noise on that direction…
I don’t care who they voted for, or if they voted at all. Does not voting for Clinton make them racist? Seriously asking, because if they don’t vote for Clinton then Trump could become president. Are they also complicit? How much?
A horrible person could still be a decent president. Devil’s advocate… or not. Look at Lyndon Johnson.
True, but race issues may be very far down in their payoff matrix. If they buy into the crap they’ve been fed, they may be literally concerned about their survival and the survival of the whole human race. The same is true for third-party voters and those who sat this out, albeit to a lesser extent.
Are you really? I’m assuming you voted Obama, although I may be wrong. If you voted for Obama, where’s the hair shirt you’ve been wearing for the past 8 years?
I’m not even being snarky. I voted for Obama in 2008 and felt so bad about it I couldn’t bring myself to vote for him in 2012. I know whereof I speak.
I did the “right” thing and voted for Clinton this time around, after agonizing over the decision for months. Fat lot of good it did me.
I’m just trying to explain the very real mindset that I see but apparently many of you are still struggling with.
I understand your point, but I think much of the hype about racism was campaign rhetoric. The other day, we were talking about Trump and his angry anti-Jewish rhetoric, but nobody could point to any verified anti-Jewish remarks attributed to him. just one anecdote from 30 years ago about him preferring accountants who wear kippah.
Nate Silver was wrong, wrong, dead wrong, about Trump in the primaries. Others (ex Sam Wang) did not make the same mistake.
So there was a solid reason to mistrust his accuracy about Trump in the general.
And as for the polls being wrong, I’m going to take Sam Wang’s opinion over yours:
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/09/aftermath/
11:44pm: The business about 65%, 91%, 93%, 99% probability is
not the main point. The entire polling industry – public,
campaign-associated, aggregators – ended up with data that missed
tonight’s results by a very large margin. There is now the question of
understanding how a mature industry could have gone so wrong. And of
course, most of all, there is the shock of a likely Trump presidency. I
apologize that I underestimated the possibility of such an event.
…
11:12pm: Using the projections of the NY Times, Donald
Trump is outperforming his pre-election polling margins by a median of
4.0 +/- 2.6 percentage points (the 8 states in the Geek’s Guide). In
Senate races, Republicans are outperforming by 6.0 +/- 3.7 percentage
points. A five-percentage-point polling miss would be a tremendous error
by modern polling standards. Undecided or minor-party voters coming
home to Trump? Shy Trump voters? I don’t know.
…
10:38pm: At the Senate level, the polling error is
looking pretty substantial at the moment, maybe 5 points toward
Republicans. A polling error of this size would be the largest on
record, at least in a Presidential year. I was wrong to downplay this
possibility.
The harping on the “international banking” groups, the “most corrupt candidate” with a Jewish star for starters.
.[quote=“Brainspore, post:10, topic:89110”]
…it’s still impossible to say with confidence that Sanders would have beaten Trump based on polling data from six months ago.
[/quote]
Very true. But it is also true that Hillary had some weakness against Trump(eg. support for the TPP) that Bernie didn’t. OTOH the money men would have pulled out ALL THE STOPS to prevent Bernies’s election, while they mostly sat out the last election, preferring Hillary’s policies to WTF.
Sorry I read 50.5% because I spent very little time clicking trough the Wikipedia link you posted to the cited source of the number. And you are correct that more people voting usually favors democrats.
Still stands that turnout wasn’t ridiculously low like has been charged over and over again, and my assertion is based on the numbers I saw last yesterday. I could be proven wrong by digging through the counties and seeing how they came up, but Trump didn’t maintain the GOP vote while Hillary lost the Democratic vote that doesn’t even make sense. People had to cross the aisle and as the data came in from the rural counties Trump had overwhelming numbers there when other candidates didn’t.
I’m also not claiming that the Democrats are not at fault, I’m saying the voter turnout is not the primary reason behind the loss and to get the voters the Democrats lost to would take courting the white voters that Trump made inroads on or making voting easier - which ultimately doesn’t favor two parties.
I’m just rambling now, but the demographics flopped on the Democrats and the GOP bled enough of that by courting only white voters.
If you use the FEC numbers for the elections and the only number we have to use in 2016 you get what I said.
Kind of academic, but fundamentally you’re only complicit in racism that you allow to happen without trying to stop it. If every Trump voter who is “not really racist” donates $1,000 to Black Lives Matter tomorrow, that doesn’t make their vote for Trump any less complicit in racism, though their $1,000 might help resist it, too.
One recurring theme in conversations about race: what the effects are matters, sometimes more than what the intent was.
I mean, I’m still wearing it, aren’t I? Obama’s failure to mobilize the base in 2010 and avoid the last 6 years of partisan deadlock is arguably what made the field so thorny for HRC. His use of extralegal drones is unconscionably hawkish. He’s been complicit or actively behind some of the worst entertainment industry pro-Copyright bullshit in the last decade. Gitmo is open and now waiting for members of the press. His failures are part of why I’m a Bernie supporter.
He wasn’t when it came to the election. In fact the ‘How could Trump win’ posted on Nov 1st was right on the mark
I think after four years of Trump and worsening economic conditions no matter how many people they throw out of the country or trade deals they tear up (it didn’t work in the Great Depression, it made things worse) there will be a call to an FDR-type figure for a New New Deal.
If Sanders is still up for it, it might happen.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/bernie-sanders-doesnt-rule-2020-white-house-run-173501146--election.html
This is just anecdotal, but I heard a bunch of people in the couple of days before the election talking about how much they wished Sanders was still in the race. Some said that they were going to write him in, but most went for Trump.
I quoted min and max of this year’s state election results above. you may have seen that I used a lower value for my hypothetical AfD faction in the Bundestag.
No. The inter-webs do provide.
There’s an old saying about hindsight.
But before the election, we knew that he was completely wrong about Trump in the primary.
Look I was a sceptic when he posted that on Nov 1st… but he was the only person that laid it out as a possibility. Every damn other position I saw was it was a done deal and Hillary won.
I need to hold on to the illusion that Germany is a sea of sanity in an ocean of madness, otherwise I will seriously struggle getting out of bed in the morning.
The problem is, Trump wasn’t just a horrible person, he was advocating terrible, racist policies. By accepting that, that makes his supporters racist, because at best the racism was something they were willing to perpetuate to advance some other goal, which is… racism.
The primaries pick the candidates. This time, less than 15% of registered Dems and Republicans voted in their respective primaries (doesn’t count caucuses, because fuck caucuses). The opportunity to pick anybody else was available. But people didn’t bother.
