You are leaving out the hundreds of thousands (millions?) who may have already contracted the virus and developed few symptoms or been asymptomatic. A number we may never know. One would assume that trend would continue going forward, unless of course the virus mutates to become more virulent. So no, 10% of infected people dying doesn’t jibe with what we know. Italy’s present fatality rate of over 9% of confirmed cases however is tragic enough… and all the data we need to listen to medical professionals and practice social distancing, including self-isolation where recommended.
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Honestly I don’t know why Marc Lipsitch said “40% to 70%” a few weeks ago
I’m just assuming not everybody will get it because that’s what he told us
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Good to hear! On the subject of dangerous cults highly recommend this as well, and Wright’s earlier book ‘The Looming Tower’:
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Maybe YOU are leaving things out
So you’re gonna “well actually” me over the difference between 10% and 9%
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Counting the asymptomatic, that cuts the overall mortality rate in half again, but everything’s indicating that it’s shaping up to be worse in the US in both spread and severity, so 5% might not be so far off…
Widespread testing in Iceland suggests about half of the infected have mild or no symptoms (or at least hadn’t at the time of testing - almost 80% of asymptomatic cases in Korea eventually developed symptoms). Which potentially means a lower death rate, but far more people infected (as it’s far more difficult to contain), which means more deaths overall. It’s highly unlikely to only infect half the population if it runs its course.
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Okay so no healthcare workers.
How about other occupations? Police; firefighters; food production, processing and delivery workers; supermarket workers; pharmacy workers; manufacturers of ventilators and other pharmaceuticals; energy industries workers; petrol/gas station workers; undertakers and crematorium workers? Just a few off the top of my head.
And what about partners and housemates of people in these occupations?
Excluding all of them (or some of them) and you will struggle to meet the minimum percentage required to achieve herd immunity.
Not the Playboy kind, now.
I am seriously hoping you just didn’t do the math on that, because losing 0.2% of everyone under 40 is not in any way a good thing.
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He wouldn’t be the worst person to go to church.
I’ve said this before, but policing what or who can say what here is inappropriate. Folks are speculating, and unless a post is obviously in violation of the guidelines by spreading dangerously false information as fact, people are free to speculate here. Without showing their credentials first. This is a BBS, not Quora or the WHO.
That being said, arguing over facts no one can really know at this point is probably counterproductive, too. Can we all just collectively assume the numbers will come in somewhere between the best and worst predictions and not derail entire topics over who’s numbers are more accurate, please?
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