Obligs:
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His statements are so dangerous people now hoarding and dying from chloroquine, I wonder if this will turn into yet another lawsuit(-s).
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FTFY. Let’s stop calling these coronavirus briefings, they are nothing more than thinly veiled Trump rallies. He’s not interested in disseminating facts, he’s just trying to speak to his base and Fox News cohorts. The only thing that’s missing are the reporters chanting, “lock her up”.
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So currently in the U.S. about 0.015% of people have contracted the virus (without better testing there’s a big margin of error on that estimate). Worldwide it is less than that. For instance, the plot you posted has a peak at 60%. Pardon me if I have a serious problem with so cavalierly responding with what amounts to “don’t worry, after millions die it’ll just wind down on its own.”
Yes it can’t increase exponentially forever and does have to decrease eventually, but we have a huge say in when that happens. And defeatist bullshit about running out of people to infect is no better than trump’s deluded bullshit about it floating on by once the weather warms up
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My statement was one of fact. Sorry if that upsets you. I did point out later that social distancing should move us into the plateau earlier, leaving fewer people affected.
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Slightly more up to date:
Daily new cases might be slightly slowing down.
Or it could be illusory, because states gave up testing.
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Your model forgets to include Dead people.
There are already over 16,000 of them worldwide, and we are still early in exponential growth.
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Given how difficult it is to get testing, I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if the actual counts are magnitudes higher.
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Of course it will plateau at some point. The problem is that if you let Covid run its course unhindered, it will overload the health system way before it reaches that point. That means a lot more people will die from injuries and illnesses completly unrelated to Covid that can’t be treated due to lack of resources.
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can we impeach him, again? there are fewer senators present every day, it seems…
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You see, death is just a form of recovery, because when you are dead you are neither infecting other people nor available for re-infection.
Please don’t show this model to anyone working in the white house.
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You can look at the line graphs in log scale on that site. It is a little easier to interpret, and it is still pretty linear. When that line develops a curve toward horizontal we may be getting a handle on it. That is not now.
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Well, maybe not sooner, but flatter…
The prime idea is ‘flattening thecurve’: keep the number of infected people at any one time low enough for medical services to deal with.
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If you click around to other countries on the Johns Hopkins map, you’ll see that the US has by far the steepest curve of anywhere in the world. Unsurprising given that too much of our nation champions ignorance.
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Just what I’ve been saying! There’s nothing to worry about, because it will simply die off when it runs out of human hosts to inhabit.
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You know, of course, that he’s been seeing this light he speaks of every time he blinks, ever since he stared at that eclipse.
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What are you even trying to say here? Do you really think we’re beyond the “beginning” where we’re out of people and the exponential rate must decrease?
Both your statement “except possibly at the beginning” and the model “predicts an approximately exponential growth” both state that it will be exponential growth for a period of time and population capacity.
Assuming the example graph is percentages and not absolute numbers. That looks like 60% of the population and about 20% of the time scale.
How long until we hit 180,000,000 infected people? Definitely puts us still in the “beginning”.
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So, there truly is no god in Cleveland… yeah that checks out.
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Yeah, that’s literally his job.
He also told people to stay home, cancelled church services, told patients and healthcare workers not to worry about going to confession and told other Catholics to stay at home, be sorry for their sins, and do the rites as best they could alone or with their family SO THEY WON’T SPREAD THE FARKING VIRUS
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