Even if we assume that the number of cases reported is only a fraction of the true number, NYC is nowhere close to where we could see any herd immunity. Reported cases are still only 1.5% of the population of the city. If we assume that there are actually 5 times as many cases, with many of those suffering mild symptoms, that still leaves only 7.5% of the city with any immunity from previous exposure. So if you eliminate all measures and go back to “normal” today the virus will immediately return to exponential spread.
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Serological studies in NYC suggest that upwards of 20% of the populaitons may have been exposed
Now, what that means and how you interpret that data is still dicey, but obviously even that remains below the level needed for herd immunity. Mostly testifies to the pathetic testing regimen we have here, and NYC is probably doing the best.
My point was that if you look at national stats, the numbers from greater NYC overwhelm other locales and make any interpretation tough. The graph showing US-greater NYC is very concerning in that the national data set looks like the pandemic is flattening out, when that is actually pretty much entirely due to the efforts of NYC and does not reflect what is happening nationwide.
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Do you really need an explainer on why contagious diseases tend to spread faster through densely populated areas than sparsely populated areas?
A typical NYC resident is going to come within 6 feet of a lot more people on an average day than a typical Wyoming resident will regardless of either person’s political inclinations.
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You know, the White House still has that big banner that reads “Mission Accomplished!”
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“we kill the flame”
Leonard Cohen, calling it, as usual, much in advance of real life events.
As long as I am here, may as well, since the U.S. is closing in on what we all hope is still an election year (only properly run this time):
Missing you now more than ever, dear Leonard, please rest in power.
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Maybe the next factory he visits can play The Bangles “Eternal Flame” while he ignores signs to wear a mask.
And now that that song is stuck in my head I’m going to take a nap.
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Looks like he stuck to his guns on ending the task force for about as long as he stuck to his guns on the disinfectant thing. Just waiting for him to use the “I was being sarcastic” excuse again.
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Update Xeni,
Task force is no longer winding down. The orange atrocity has either done a 180 or, more likely, is making it appear the task force will continue to work while not actually working on the containment of the virus.
From the article “may replace some members and will shift its focus toward an economic reopening in the U.S., Trump said in a series of tweets.”
Eta: brainspore beat me to it.
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Let me guess…
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Yikes!
If you are music-earworm-susceptible, please don’t listen to the song I posted in the Live and Let Die thread.
As has been pointed out by others on this thread, people aren’t perfect, and you will find that there isn’t perfect distancing and masking in urban areas either, but at least there is more of a recognition that this is real and must be taken seriously.
I have to announce my medical condition whenever I am within 20 feet of anyone in Indiana, because otherwise they’ll walk up to within a few feet of me and talk right in my face without a mask on, telling me how ridiculous it is to follow the rules. At least the word ‘cancer’ still has some clout.
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Unfortunately, (or not) there are still those who seem to believe that cancer is contagious, somehow. (Specifically not including HPV in this statement.)
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I didn’t think of that angle. I guess science/medical ignorance in every area, not just covid-19, would be likely in this crowd.
What I do is, I put my hand up (palm out in the universal ‘stop’ position) and say “I’m high risk because of stage 3 cancer and an autoimmune disorder”. That stops people in their tracks, which I find fascinating. But I hate having to reveal that much to people just to keep them away.
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I find frequently when people find out I have had cancer they often move a bit further away. It’s a weird thing, and I probably only notice because I am that kind of guy, but it is certainly a thing (which predated the whole Covid precautions, I guess I should point out.)
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Yeah, I kinda figger’d thet 'un.
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Ack. Too late. Plus you just have to mention the song and my brain starts up the internal jukebox
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You think there’s even a single conservative reader of BoingBoing?
That’s the problem with interpreting Trump policy. I think anything he says at a rally or even on mic is safely discounted. But every bit of actual policy I’ve read says he wants to ease lockdown, not end it.
Accurate, judging from resent history. As an American “warrior” you’ll be sent to fight needles battles, predicated on false pretense, followed by inadequate health care, and a massive backlog of benefits claims.
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