Yeah it’s a super smart move. The only quibble I have with it is that the color jumps are a bit too small to easily match each state to the key.
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Selective remembering. When Democrats lose they also cry fowl. Yes, Gore did concede, but his base raised hell about it for quite awhile. I’ve heard similar grumbling for smaller races (Governor and Senate seats, etc). Rigged Diebold machines is a common-ish claim.
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On the grandest scale, it feels like it is squarely on the right’s side of things.
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Good point. Insane troll logic is functionally unstoppable.
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BUT…Gore asked for the recount, it was done, and he was told “You lost sorry Al” and he gracefully went away.
Not quite. Gore asked for the recount, but it was not done, as the SCOTUS ruled against Gore, stopping the recount immediately. Gore gracefully accepted the ruling of the court.
Eventually, several media organizations commissioned a full recount, and the eventual results were unclear, as the winner would have depended on the methodology (strict vs. lenient standard) and scope of the recount (whole state vs. certain counties).
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That’s not the problem. The polls were quite accurate, particularly at 538. The “unskewing” was Republican confirmation bias. Several people told me to expect a Romney landslide… and meant it!
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Things have changed in the, ahem, decades since some of your examples! For example, there’s no way Indiana would go blue this time around.
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Even worse than the recount issues in 2000 were the voter poll purges that almost certainly disenfranchised enough black voters to swing the election in favor of Bush.
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The scariest thing about these polls is the possibility that they are significantly skewed because people are embarrassed to admit that they’re going to vote for Trump and that a seeming Clinton landslide could depress her needed votes. Put those two together and things could end, very, very badly this year.
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Almost everyone on 538 ranked at or above a B- on 538 calls cell phones now. That is most pollsters you’ve heard of.
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I will never understand why certain people, and majorities thereof, will vote for a party regardless of the platform or the people. If the Republican candidate was genital herpes with a platform of mandatory witch burning, they would still get half the central states.
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Well, but the central states have that witch problem, so it’s not really a fair fight.
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I don’t have any reason to believe Diebold machines were rigged, but I do think that their security is crap.
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Actually, I think you have to look at this from the other point of view. Rasmussen regularly predicted Romney would win throughout the season giving Republicans false hope.
Democrats kept using 538 for their predictions, a site which you could argue quite convincingly “unskews” polls. Now how the model deals with skew seems correct, but that kind of technical detail isn’t going to sway a lot of people.
Sure other polls also said Obama was going to win, but they got their own aggregator whose model effectively biased everything towards Rasmussen and well… if you don’t understand statistics*, don’t read the pollster’s crosstabs and stick to news sites that reinforce how everyone thinks the other candidate is awful and don’t even know anyone who will vote for them, it isn’t surprising that you’d be certain they’d win.
* let’s be honest, even people who regularly do stats often don’t understand statistics
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If Trump spent the next 100 days running naked smeared in his own excrement, Clinton might pick up South Carolina as well
You say that like he (or his campagin) hasn’t already considered that tactic. Personally if he did, I’d be disapointed because it would allow the party to declare him prima facie unfit for office by reason of insanity and then get to choose a new candidate.
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“The system is rigged! I should be able to say whatever hateful ignorant shit I want and still lead the polls, like during the primaries! Unfair!” (hypothetical Trump quote.)
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I love that blue dot in Nebraska. It’s proof that there is still good there.
One key lesson from Brexit is that polls might miss stuff when people stop discussing politics publicly. As the people on the right hardened their stance, they also got more silent in the face of demonization from the left.
This scares me for obvious reasons.
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This one?
It’s a bit marginal. I guess it’s basically Omaha?
Pretty much. They broke for Obama, too. I wish more states split their EC votes, to be honest. It makes me feel that my vote actually matters.
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