The trailer to the film mentioned above:
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Well it woukd speak to Manchin not really having much of a polling reason to vote yes for Kavannaugh. His race isn’t particularly close, hasn’t ever been, and wasn’t expected to be.
And I’m not much of a purity politics kind of guy. Thats how we got Trump and rote insanity over on the right. Big tent, people and regions have different priorities, intra-DNC cooperatiin has replaced inter-party cooperation, and all that.
But there’s a certain point where a law maker’s actions so completely undermine their own, or their own party’s interest. That you start to wonder why they’ve even aligned themselves with that particular platform. We might call it going Full Lieberman.
You can disagree (and probably should) on particular issues or policies or approaches. But confirming Kavanaugh effectively shoots all the other stuff any member of the DNC presumably agrees on in the foot. Completely. For the foreseeable future. Well beyond the next couple election cycles. Its not a “safe” vote in any sense. Its not enough of a foregone conclusion, the GOP doesn’t have a large enough margin, that DNC votes to confirm are effectively not contributing. Nor is it something thats unlikely to happen to the point that yay votes can just be tossed around.
Any votes to confirm from blue dogs directly contribute to something that fundamentally, and irrevocably undermines the DNC and the broader left. Potentially forever. And with the very close margin any individual vote runs the risk of being the one definitive vote.
Manchin voting to confirm is pretty much indefensible and unforgivable. If he does, he needs to go eventually. Because if the point of guys like Manchin, is to hold seats in places more moderate than the DNC core. To effect legislative margins large enough to push a particular agenda. What is the point if the guy actively undermines that entire agenda. So why direct important resources to elect people to those difficult (and thus expensive) seats, when it wont contribute to success in congress? Probably better to pickup a seat elsewhere if possible.
But its sort of a catch 22. Its well too late to primary or replace the guy. Or any blue dog up for election who votes yes. And the stakes too high, any margin too tight. For them to see direct consequences for their votes. And there just aren’t enough seats in play to get a gain in the senate while replacing them in another state. And for a guy like Manchin. You can’t sideline the guy too much, or pull support. Or he might drop from the party, switch caucuses. And there goes your faint majority.
Its a bit fucked really. But that’s exactly why your seeing senators like Murkowski on the right. And Manchin on the “left” play this game. However much they do or do not fuck over their own caucus. They aren’t going to see much response beside continued support from the party for at least another few election cycles.
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They tried. The progressive candidate lost by over 2-1. WVa clearly wants a conservative senator. I would rather that they have a senator the disagrees with the DNC platform on 50% of the issues, than one that slavishly follows the GOP platform 100% of the time, as almost all of the Republicans do, and I would rather have one whose choice of party contributes to the “D” count in the Senate.
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A progressive candidate tried. The party backed Manchin for obvious reasons. If a yes vote for Kavannaugh is a breaking point. Its now too late to primary his ass with another more reliable blue dog. And the electoral slate is too brutal to revoke endorsements and funding. Let him lose and use those resources for another race in another state, to still end up with a majority but shed Manchin.
Sure. And I agree with you. But theres a point where that Dem votes with the GOP platform 90% of the time. Or in this case, may make one vote that potentially precludes the entire DNC platform. For the foreseeable future. Regardless of what happens in the next 10 elections.
It doesn’t matter if (fill in the blue dog) votes 100% DNC party line. Or 100% progressive. Or whatever. Going forwards. If their one vote with the RNC here. Will see most of those future policies nuked in the SC.
That whole value judgement of “we can lose votes on some of this stuff, so long as we have enough when it really counts”. Genuinely falls apart if members of your caucus throw you under the bus when it really counts.
I’m absolutely not a hardline, only one particular type of left counts sort of person. But a yes vote on Kavanaugh really should be a point of no return on this.
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I have no problem with replacing Manchin if it can be done. But I don’t see any advantage of having someone even with exactly his voting record who is GOP instead of Democratic. The idea that it gives cover to GOP senators to vote wrong is silly: they’ll vote that way cover or no cover. (And - fwiw - while Manchin is conservative on some of the biggest issues, like choice and gun control and environment, he supports Obamacare and campaigned for Clinton.) Probably there are Republicans having the symmetric conversation about Murkowski, and I don’t think either of us would consider her even remotely a Democrat,
Where did I say that?
I pointed out exactly how its not possible in the short to medium term. Then pointed out that Murkowski is in the same position.
Neither of their parties, because of the tight majority in the senate, has the space to marginalize or remove them. And so has limited pull in influencing their vote.
A blue dog vote for Kavanaugh doesnt give anyone cover for anything. It directly contributes to his ending up on the supreme court. If Collins and Murkowkski vote no, or any two other GOP hedgers. But Manchin votes yes. Well then Pence is the tie breaker, and Kav is confirmed. Every DNC vote in favor means that one more GOP senator has to vote no to effect the DNC’s goal.
Manchin’s not up for re-election again till 2022. It would be dumb to sandbag him this year. But if he votes yes on Kavanaugh, then he probably needs to go long term. And be backended as much as possible if there’s enough of a margin after 2020 to do so. Helping confirm Kavanaugh so completely undercuts the DNC as a whole. Not just their agenda. But potentially their legal right to be elected in the first place. That I don’t see any justification, any defense for doing so. This is is exactly the important stuff that supposed to make all those smaller set backs OK. The bare minimum cooperation that makes conservative democrats worth keeping in the party. It doesnt matter much if they check a number for your caucus in a particular state, or district. If they act against thay caucus for the really important, generational, can’t undo it shit.
Ah, you didn’t read the subthread from the beginning. Backtrack for the context.
Or you can respond to what I’ve said instead of assuming I’ve endorsed some one else’s take.
Your line
Genuinely falls apart if members of your caucus throw you under the bus when it really counts .
read to me as an endorsement of the assertion way upthread by the person whom I was arguing with when you first jumped in to gainsay a post of mine.
However, if your take is that Manchin is better than a Republican, but that a yes vote on Kavanaugh should doom him for the future, then we are not in any sort of disagreement. The “better than a Republican” is really all I was trying to say in this subthread.
What’s the perjury count up to now?
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