I had to check, and indeed there actually is such a person. If I held that title I’d milk it (alongside a PBJ) for all it was worth as the final authority on such matters.
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I actually got a polling call from Gallup in 2008. If their name hadn’t shown up on caller ID, I never would’ve answered.
Fast forward to 2022, an age where caller ID is spoofed and scam phone calls are an absolute plague upon our land, I would never answer that call. Which goes a ways toward understanding why polls are so flawed. The people who would answer such a call are either gullible rubes or trolls who like to harass scammers. The first group might answer the pollster honestly, the second group is only there to skew the numbers for the lulz.
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Or, they can try all that and be ignored. If there’s one thing 45 and co have shown, it’s that Congress has no teeth to enforce their shit. One can pretty much ignore them when it comes to anything but actual laws that pass and are signed by the executive.
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You can do something about it! Write postcards to swing state voters, phone bank as well!
There’s still a chance Republicans don’t win the Senate, we’ve got two weeks of WORK ahead…
Guys… you DO realize that this is exactly what Republicans say when they’re losing in the polls, and then the polls turn out to be correct.
Polls in 2016 were correct. Two weeks out, Hillary was up 5 points. Then the FBI investigation happened. By the day before the election, the polls had Hillary up 3 points. She ended up winning the popular vote by… wait for it… 3 points.
Polling isn’t perfect, but it’s very, very good.
That example tells me it’s the polls the day before the election that predict it, because they can change until then. That kind of feels like the opposite of your point…
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Odds are still strong Dems will not just retain control of the Senate, but pick up a couple seats.
When you look at the actual House map, it’s currently an even split with the new districting.
The odds and models use polls (which mostly capture retired people) but fail to factor in the large increase in voter registration, especially among women and young people. The clear message from that surge in registration is the Dobbs is driving new voters, and those voters are motivated against the GQP.
Polls in 2020 were way wrong, right up through the election. When voter turnout is strong, the polls overweigh Repubicans (who are a minirity party by a significant margin).
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Sigh. Keep sticking your head in the sand if you so desire. Now Herschel Walker is LEADING Raphael Warnock in Georgia.
Me, I take data in, and act accordingly. You can choose to call it “rigged!” if you want.
But I’m busting my hump for the next two weeks, because I don’t think it’s rigged, I think Democrats are about to lose midterms, unless we turn this ship around.
Good for you. Just maybe keep the Chicken Little act to yourself. It’s not helping.
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Really. So that’s why Chuck Schumer was caught on hot mic telling Biden “we’re in danger” in Georgia.
The experts listen to polls. You do not. I think we’re clear on that.
…apology.
Or at least a truce flag.
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And of course, the polls ignore the rise in voter registration in the run up to the election and only focus on already registered voters… But sure, whatever you say.
Thanks for getting the vote out, though. I can’t argue with that.
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But but, the sky is falling!!
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