I think Putin’s main problem is that he seems to believe his own propaganda that the Ukrainians are a people that is being enslaved by a puppet government of Nazis on drugs and would all prefer to be proper Russians given half an opportunity. Unfortunately it turns out that they actually fight their Russian liberators like cornered wolverines, and that appears to come somewhat unexpected (to Putin, anyway).
Even if Putin “wins” in the short term there is no way this is not going to turn into Afghanistan-in-the-1980s 2.0, with the additional twist that more people outside Russia seem to care about Ukraine in 2022 than they seemed to care about Afghanistan in the 1980s. Even Putin doesn’t have enough soldiers to police all of Ukraine, which is a very big place, and the Ukrainians have the means and motivation to make being posted to Ukraine very unpopular with the Russian military (especially with discreet outside support from neighbouring NATO countries). There’s also the matter of public opinion at home, which the longer this “special military operation” goes on is going to be harder and harder to control, as people’s sons seem to disappear and never be heard from again.
Putin may look for a way to save face, claim concessions and get his ass out of there. The other options don’t look good for him even if he wears down Ukraine and takes it.
Ukraine falls to Russia - economic sanctions and isolation continue and cripple russia’s ability to make war, and hence their only power. Russia comes out weaker than ever.
Or the west takes active part in driving russia out, Putin loses, and still faces all sanctions and isolation and Putin not only looks like a dope, he is a dope.
Or the west takes an active part in driving russia out, so Putin nukes us, and we nuke him the fuck right back. Everybody loses. Note this is distinctly more possible than the above.
What nobody is talking about is that the ball is in the court of the Russian people. They loose in every possible scenario listed above. Unless they decisively get rid of Putin, and his cronies –– that is their only chance to come out of this mostly whole, and they are really the only ones that can execute this solution.
It probably doesn’t help that Ukrainians are significantly further toward being sympathetic figures than, say, Chechens, for purposes of both Russian popular opinion and Putin’s own justifying narrative.
Either way the public is going to object to friendly casualties and unending war; but in some conflicts you have a more or less blank check in terms of hostile casualties and civilian deaths and infrastructure destruction; while here it seems much less likely that destroying them in order to save them is going to remain acceptable.
The world wide civil support for Ukrainian citizens has been refreshing. Compare this to the invasions in the middle east where a lot of the world’s population is taught to believe it is mostly desert with an aggressive barbaric culture.
Maybe Putin over estimated the pop fascism consuming the world?
I also wonder if Putin is simply waiting to drop the hammer to let more potential casualties leave the cities. Obviously he is worried about the body bags optics.
I’m reminded of post 9-11 conversations I had with liberal-democrate co-workers who had decided to vote for Bush. “With a mad man like that (Bin Laudin) at large, we need our own madman at the helm to stand a chance.” You want to know why undecided voters will go Trump in the next election? This. Performance art screaming to the world that they all need to get their own fascist strongman in place.
I didn’t understand why these creeps were supporting Putin after the invasion began, but then backed off - it didn’t occur to me that it was the lack of an immediate victory. I assumed it must have to do with realizing the public sentiment wasn’t behind them - though there you get into questions of how much the views of Republican voters drive the public positions of media figures like Carlson, and how much is the other way around. The retreat of support being a response to Putin showing signs of weakness (e.g. failing to immediately capture Ukraine, threatening nuclear war, etc.) does explain a lot…
A lot of people are questioning his mental stability right now - rumors of severe health issues (resulting in cognitive decline and/or reckless desperation born of an expectation he won’t live very long), drug use, etc. all in response to his actions which seem pretty foolish.
Some of whom were apparently told they were going on training exercises - only to end up invading Ukraine (at which point they were threatened with execution if they resisted orders). The morale has to be absolutely terrible (which I guess is why there’s reports of thousands of troops in Russia rioting rather than allowing themselves to be sent to Ukraine).
I suppose part of the problem is what is meant by “takeover” - over-run the country with heavy weapons (that may or may not have gas or ammo)?, yeah. Take military objectives?, maybe. Actually take and hold the country?, a whooole different matter.
If Putin’s actions threaten the oligarchs wealth and safety, they will turn on him in a hot second. He may not think it often but he answers to them as a group, not the other way around. One oligarch he can deal with or intimidate but not all of them.
Just want to make sure you don’t think that is my opinion. I’m just pointing out why from a want-to-be dictators point of view, this might not be bad press if the goal is to encourage other places to lean right.
this the the part that I really was objecting too - I don’t think any of this is driving undecided voters to Trump. One, undecided voters are a made-up thing, and two, this is all directed at shoring up the base, not trying to convince non-base members of anything
