I honestly don’t think Putin will annex the Baltic states. He’s no earthly reason to do so. Hell, Eastern Ukraine is a stretch: if he wanted to do so the best time’s long since passed. Unless he wants to wait for Ukraine to inevitably collapse. The one problem I can see which might cause him to do anything of the sort is the fact that the more aggressive NATO is the less tolerable NATO countries in close proximity to major population centers become. Recall the response of the United States to Cuba which is about as far away from Florida as Tallinn is from St. Petersburg.
Note: this is not me defending his moral fiber. Just his sanity.
And it’s funny you should mention the Balkans. If you look at Putin’s speeches, his foreign policy was shaped (so he says, repeatedly) by the 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia. He was part of the Russian delegation on Kosovo at the time of the handoff after resolution 1244 was signed, and mentions this as a formative experience regarding his stance on American foreign policy.
So while you might be okay with the Clinton approach to the Balkans, Putin isn’t. And he has nukes.
And you think the President-elect who’s vowed to increase military spending while pursuing an isolationist foreign policy mixed with vows to “bomb the hell out of ISIS” and “take the oil” in a world where he thinks there should be more nukes wouldn’t support the same systems? The only difference is that Putin is guaranteed that his orange fanboi won’t authorise that software patch, whereas with Clinton he would have had to settle for a high probability that she wouldn’t authorise it.
Yeah, but Trump’s incompetent and prone to empty bombast. I’m doing Hillary the courtesy of taking her seriously.
For all that you complain about people falsely characterising Putin as the devil, you seem to do the same when it comes to Clinton. I like neither of them, but I don’t draw false equivalencies between them, either.
If I seem to be overfocusing on Hillary’s foreign policy it is because America, in general, has so much going on in that respect. At his most ruthless Putin will take over a part of a neighboring country largely populated by Russians. And this is unjust and against international war. But that’s as far as sanity can take you. Despite popular paranoid fantasies about it, T-14s are no more likely to trundle through Germany than they are to do so on the Moon.
Where I disagree with Putin is his domestic policy. Which is largely terrible. Depressingly, his domestic policy is unfailingly popular. He wins his elections and his chief opposition are the Communists which, while left on economic issues, obviously, are surprisingly reactionary when it comes to social issues. The sort of opposition that defends social view I, and very likely you, find more amenable is not very powerful, probably, really, because they are associated with Americans which are not popular in domestic Russian politics ever since they turned their country into Mad Max in the nineties.
At their most ruthless, Americans will utterly destroy countries on the other side of the world which are completely and comically unable to harm them. And they’ve done so a lot. Grenada. Vietnam. Iraq. Libya. Just to name a few. Seeing as I live outside the protective sphere of the West, I find which country the Americans burn down next a pressing concern. Especially if they provoke Russia into enough anxiety to start staging civil-preparedness exercises for nuclear war. You may not be taking Ms. Clinton seriously, but apparently, the government of the Russian Federation is.
I disagree with Clinton (either one) on domestic issues less, though obviously, I think their (again, both of 'em) attitude towards the banks borders on the criminal and I am not a fan of their attitudes on crime, either. The 1994 bill was… not excellent. But at least we agree on things like equal rights.