WHO warns 'immediate second peak' of coronavirus threatens countries that reopen too soon

Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/05/25/covid-second-peak.html


How about countries that didn’t wait for infection rates to decline before loosening restrictions?


I’m continuing to self-isolate as much as possible, wear a mask when I need to go out. I will not put my health at risk so some fucking politician can look good.


Can’t have a second peak if the first one never ends…



Ugh, this. Take away NYC, LA, Detroit and New Orleans and we’re not even close to the peak in the US.

Sorry it’s behind a paywall, but it’s the most recent reporting I found (May 16). All that really matters, though:

Edited to fix photo.


If you need an example, Iran is a case in point:


Don’t let up until we’ve beaten this.


Still blows my mind that half the country has apparently just decided that it’s time to declare the emergency over simply because everyone is tired of dealing with it.


Asking for a dysfunctional country.

I’m not sure how well that works as a PR strategy when Republican leaders are acting like the whole thing is already over

Hell, at this point all you have to do is take away just NY, and cases are increasing. NY got hit so hard so early that as cases go down there, it makes the whole country look like it’s on the decline.

It isn’t remotely half, though. Although it’s become heavily politicized, even many Republicans aren’t crazy about prematurely lifting restrictions. Demands to declare the emergency over are coming from the top - Republican leaders and major donors. What seems to be driving that, perversely, is that they’d rather have lots of people - other people - die than have anything that smells (to them) of “socialism” enacted to save them.


If only there were some prior example we could look to for guidance …


It works for the gun control argument.


USA has figured out to deal with a second wave - pretend it doesn’t exist

something I’ve noticed since NYTimes did the memorial, a couple dozen states have started to “slow walk” posting numbers - we should have been 100K on friday but they figured out if they drag their heels on updates, it never hits that number

We’re “officially” going to pass 100K in a few hours Monday night, they can’t stop all the states from updating their numbers, but there’s going to be a silent surge this week when no-one is noticing


even if it drops to “only” 1000 deaths per day, which is still a hell of a lot of suffering even for people who recover, we’ll hit a quarter million by election day and you can be sure that number will be hidden as deeply as possibly from the public


Yeah, the street where I used to live (in Dick Armey’s old district) evidently went ahead and had its Memorial Day block party they’ve had for 40 years now. No one wore masks, or kept their distance…


A capability to will yourself the reality you prefer coupled with a propaganda machine telling you it’s an outrage that the preferred reality doesn’t exist and well, you see.

Yeah, those graphs are just plus and minus NYC. I haven’t seen one with all metro areas excluded, though. I guess I could generate my own graph, but that is not what quarantines are for.

I thought these graphs were interesting. Again, sorry for the paywall, so here’s the lead graphic;

ETA: I’m not super interested in the thrust of the article per se, but what all of those red dots represent: localized clusters larger than the one that started NYC. NYC got so bad because it spread so fast due to density. It has dropped because of social distancing. It won’t continue to do that without it.


They are still manipulating the numbers, too:

Also, have you noticed increased reporting of the numbers of recovered patients? They want to downplay the percentage of people who have been tested, the number of cases, and the number who have died.


Wow, it’s almost like if anyone who had a basic understanding of epidemiology could predict this…

Too bad we don’t have anyone with such an understanding in any sort of authoritative/policy setting position…

Jesus F, at this point I’d take a vet school dropout who had at least passed virology and epidemiology if they had absolute say over policy. (and might I add, we only had 1 dropout out of our class of 110 in Vet school, and he was a mess… But, at least he’d understand the gravity of the situation, and how disease behaves.)


There is always a big peak on Tuesday or Wednesday and a trough over the weekend

The shortest metric that’s meaningful is a seven-day average


NYT articles about coronavirus are accessible for free with site registration. No paywall, just a registration wall.


Have they revisited the stats from early May where the increase in deaths still weren’t accounted for by the number of Covid cases? I am wonder how that is going as well.

You mean, human capital stock, right?

So, let me ftfy:

What seems to be driving that, perversely, is that they’d rather have to replenish lots of human capital stock than have a temporary decline in profits.


But to benefit from that you would have to learn things and study things and if you that, you are not allowed in their clubhouse.