If you’re lashing out at friends, maybe go take a break for a bit… take a walk if you can?
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I think you kind of are though, especially in not taking into account how much their current opportunity to influence the political narrative is happening because of the opportunity that survivorship bias presents for them to discredit competitive rivals when laying blame at the feet of “people who read Huffpo.” There’s a logical leap in there that I see as troublesome and it lines up with my worst hunches about some of the discourse coming out of those outlets.
Not sure I can articulate that well enough. But I think it merits consideration.
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I was referring to something very specific
And that is this guy?
https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-arthur-898b3b8b
That is… an opinion piece on the 2016 election by a freelance sports expert then? Forgive me for not putting much stock in it.
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Say what you have to say about the author and his motivations, but the Huffpo poll I was referring to is well documented.
I’m not interested in the argument you seem to be trying to have so this convo has probably reached the limits of its capacity to be productive.
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Clarifying that I’m referring to a real thing that is well documented and not making an ad hominem.
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That makes sense, and though I’m struggling to articulate it I guess my concern is more the shape of your anxieties when lashing out and how much of the media is about controlling exactly that in viewers/consumers and how we all need to be taking that into account when it comes to how we treat ourselves and others.
I suppose that’s what has me anxious at this particular time.
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Speaking as a Christian, Trump seems much more like an anti-Christ to me.
(Also, I don’t see anyone anywhere on the Democratic / leftist / progressive side(s) being even remotely complacent about the election. If anything, it’s Trump who’s complacent, when he’s not panicking.)
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Speaking as a former evangelical Xtian:
- No worldwide ‘acceptance and approval’
- No false “world peace” lasting 3-7 years
And I think there were a few other criteria that 45 fails to meet…
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Not if you were genuinely wondering how it was possible Clinton didn’t win Michigan or Wisconsin. Even if she had campaigned there, neither state was a lock. So it was always more than possible.
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She was behind a fraction of a percentage point in both those states, which totaled 26 electoral votes, or nearly 10% of what she needed to win. She wasn’t doing anything more important IIRC, like campaigning in Ohio and Pennsylvania, so yeah she should have campaigned harder. Or, at all.
What do you want me to say, that she ran a perfect campaign and was above scrutiny, and this campaign was the only one with no lessons learned?
Or do you honestly expect me to believe that Wisconsin and Michigan were hopelessly out of reach, because they had produced Republican politicians at some point in the recent past? 
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You realize you’re re-litigating the 2016 election in a post about the 2020 election… right?
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Neither HuffPo nor Nate Silver are pollsters. They are analysts who build models into which the poll numbers are fed. The “98% chance HRC will win” narrative came from analysts, not polls.
While many polls were off in 2016, the amount they were off was not terribly inconsistent with the amounts they themselves varied over the months. Better models – like Silver’s – did a careful job of building poll stability and quality into the model, while others just worked with late poll margins of error, which do not incorporate variation over time.
The encouraging news this year is that the polls favoring Biden, both overall and by state, have been remarkably consistent. That was certainly not true 4 years ago.
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Michigan went pretty solidly for Sanders in the primary. There wasn’t a lot of enthusiasm for her here. Not really bothering to campaign here hurt her a lot.
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“I’m not denying it; I just told you,” West said in a text (yes, really) interview with Forbes , which recently spoke with West about a wide range of issues, including saying that he’s an anti-vaxxer and had COVID-19.
As for today, asked by the publication if he knew that it wasn’t possible that he’d be able to take home the 270 electoral votes necessary to capture the White House, West replied, “I’m not going to argue with you. Jesus is King.”
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Yeah… he ain’t pulling any Black votes away from Biden - not in this life or the next.
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Shitty?
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