2020 Election Thread (formerly: 2020 Presidential Candidates Thread) (Part 1)

I’m trying to not be cynical but his campaign made a fairly safe bet that Trump is going to openly advocate for street violence

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I appreciate subtlety in humor.

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Portions of a surprisingly interesting F2F interview with Biden:

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I was surprised to see how many active-duty military folks voted 3rd party in 2016. Over 34%!

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“I got more money than Trump.”

image

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…than 10-to-1, advertising data shows."

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Well, now you do.

(TBH, I don’t think it takes much to have more money than Trump; as far as I can tell, he exists on handouts from his son-in-law. At least, I can’t think of any other reason for giving Jared so much authority.)

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last week my youtube app had trump ads at the top all week driving me nuts. then there was a couple days with a biden ad and now its back to geico ads. he definitely did a push around the convention. side note: i noticed both Trump and Biden’s ads got about twice as many dislikes as likes. maybe people just hate political ads in general.

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i know ive said it before, but - with all the corruption we know about, and all of the corruption we dont - if he’s not rich now, he really is the most incompetent businessman of the 21 century.

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State-level polling trends reveal little recent change in 2020 contest, but Biden now leads by 10 in Arizona

Nationally, Biden continues to be on more solid polling ground than Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton was four years ago, when she led Trump by 3 points following the conclusion of the national conventions.

The latest survey, conducted Aug. 28-30 among 12,966 likely voters, found Biden 8 points ahead of Trump, 51 percent to 43 percent. That includes a 12-point lead among women (53 percent to 41 percent), an 11-point lead among independent voters (48 percent to 37 percent) and an 11-point lead among voters in the suburbs (52 percent to 41 percent).

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As usual, attacks from the right matter more to the “centrist” nominee than attacks from the left.

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If he automatically denies whatever Trump accuses him of, that will be pretty handy for Trump. Trump will probably accuse him of being against Russian election interference next.

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I sure hope you’re right, but you really can’t put too much weight behind an individual poll, and the latest polling average for AZ on Fivethirtyeight is much tighter than that.

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Sure. But if you’re trying to determine if there’s any change post convention you necessarily look at polls since the convention.

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I believed the polls in 2016. I no longer have any faith in them whatsoever.

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Even with the millions he’s grifted from being president, he is supposedly so far in the hole that it’s just servicing the vig.

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Putin asks you not to confuse money that Trump possesses, with money that Trump owns. It’s kind of like those newly-famous young stars you see on MTV’s Cribs. Assets are allowed to pretend they have assets…

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Many of the models used to predict the odds of a Clinton victory in 2016 were total crap, but the polls themselves were not far off. A lot of people don’t understand what polling margin of error means, and as Fivethirtyeight explained just prior to the election Trump was known to be within a normal polling error away from victory:

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