Nate Silver gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning and he won anyway. Does that mean the odds were wrong? Because I don’t know much about the value of the models myself, but it seems to me people largely changed their mind about them because this was the wrong outcome, and yet I have seen a die come up 1 before despite lower chances than that.
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No, obviously that number on its own does not indicate that the odds were wrong. If Fivethirtyeight said that certain outcomes were 71% likely to happen, then that outcome ended up happening 95% of the time, then they could be fairly criticized for an inaccurate prediction even though the outcome they predicted as being more likely was what occurred, if that makes sense…
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What metric do you use to look at the status of the campaigns?
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I don’t think any one person can have a nation-wide metric.
There is pretty much no question of my own state. He won by a landslide in 2016 here, when people were embarrassed to say they were voting for him. Now they are loud and proud, and 2016 fence-sitters I know are voting for him this year.
Nationally, who knows? What I see online seems to mirror what I see in everyday life, though.
Then I guess we’ll have to go with the available metrics. Always having an understanding of their limitations.
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*sigh*
Y’know what? Okay. Sure. Whatever works I guess.
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I highly recommend electoral-vote.com. That’s the one that popped up in 2004 as the first public website to do nationwide polling aggregation, but nobody who was behind it. Turned out to be the guy who wrote the thing back in the day that a dude named Linus wrote his own version of a while back. He’s now a CS professor in The Netherlands, who has since teemed up with an historian at UCLA.
They write overnight, post once around sunrise EST most days, and there are no comments to enable. You got something to add or subtract, they run emails on weekends. Unfortunately the site still looks like it was built by a CS professor, but ya can’t have everything, right?
It’s better than the Pokemon Go reference
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Silver has actually gone over past election predictions to validate the model. Basically, you look at all the times you said someone had a 70% chance of winning and see if they won 70% of those times. Their model works pretty well. But what does that actually mean? It means that if you see significant variation between what Silver is predicting and the betting markets, it’s a good idea to place a bet (I have a relative who did this and came out ahead).
But no prediction from Silver would be anything to feel good about, even if we knew the model was perfect. America is going into surgery and the doctor is saying there’s only a 70% chance it will make it. That’s not good news. If it were 99% instead that would still be horrifying. It’s never going to be 100% (or 999,999,999 out of a billion).
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Expect foreign intelligence agencies to release stuff about Biden and Trump in these mornings and afternoons
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White supremacy is bipartisan.
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In other news…
The analysis in that article is daft, though. It has very little to do with her Indian heritage; it’s because she’s a cop.
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Though, to be fair, if we’re going to come right out and say that the parade of Black people who spoke at the RNC convention were there to reassure white people that they aren’t bigots if they vote for trump; then it’s also fair to say that Biden Law n’ Order ad is just as much a signal to white people that the country won’t devolve into chaos if they vote for him.
When it comes down to it, most of the power to enact change in the police lies with mayors. That’s where we need to apply pressure to move from talk to action to defund the police.
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The change has to come from HR and city managers/administrators in most cities. Mayors are not that influential in CBA negotiations in most cities.
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Damn it, I clicked on that National Pulse article. Now I feel dirty.
The National Pulse’s Editor-in-Chief Raheem Kassam explained earlier this week how Harris’s ethnic background does not give her the ability to call herself “African-American” in the strictest sense
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But if part of the process is dismantling police unions, HR involvement isn’t as necessary, right?
CBA negotiations are HR and upper city management on one side of the table, and the union on the other. Residents are failed in these negotiations when city management is aligned too closely with police unions. HR is generally only aligned with continuing HR’s existence (same as in the private sector).
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Biden Law n’ Order ad is just as much a signal to white people that the country won’t devolve into chaos white supremacy will continue as usual.
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But to follow the analogy, both are lies. Trump’s is bad (yes, if you vote for trump you ARE a bigot) and Biden’s is good (he won’t actually interfere with cities defunding police).
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Why are you linking to a fascist blog? That shit was made by Raheem Kassam.
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