Manchin is just a chip off the old block. If any of you recall A. James Manchin and his dominion over the WV state body politic for decades, to his own benefit, of course, yeah, not much different. On the other hand, my Dad was appointed a “Commodore of the Ship of State” by A. James back in the day, so there is that. He had a long, long list of stupid honorifics he would hand out. In jr high, I was even awarded “The Golden Horseshoe” by him in a ceremony that looked like half church service, half medieval knight-dubbing. He was a dramatician, he was.
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What we’re seeing in that article is a bit of goalpost shifting. The fact is, until very recently, the public image of exit polling was its use to predict and call election results before the official announcement. If it was used for after-the-fact analysis, that was inside-baseball stuff that most people didn’t and still don’t think about.
So it’s an off-handed dis: “You know those exit polls you see discussed on every election night for your entire life? They’re now garbage for that purpose so we’ll pretend their main value lies elsewhere.”
The follow-up issue, of course, is how valuable they are for later analysis when such a large proportion of the respondents turn out to be liars. They can correct for mail-in voters, for people without landlines, etc., but I’m not sure how they correct for this level of dishonesty – either for exit polls or for pre-election ones.
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The one question I have about exit polling this year that I would like to know is how much it figured in the NYT needle prediction of Georgia. That needle seemed like the only thing that at all indicated that Georgia would flip and it had to be in part based on some good day-of data of where the votes were coming in and who they would likely be for, i.e. exit polls that included mail-in ballots. There wasn’t any way to look at the Georgia map on Tuesday and have any indication that there was a likelihood that it would flip on Wednesday just based on actual results so either there were exit polls informing it or the needle was driven by some spooky AI.
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this was the whole point i was raising when responding to an article @KathyPartdeux had posted. basically my recommendation was take the exit polls and demographic analysis as worth about a grain of salt.
the pre-polling was off, and as 538 is saying, the same methods are being used to adjust the exit polls. if pre-polling was off, expect the post-polling therefore also to be off.
the authors of that post say, like i said, don’t trust the exit polls too much
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John Fetterman is both a PA and a national treasure.
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He’s got my respect. That was epic snark!
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Can we report the state of Texas for jerking around Harris County voters by trying to reduce the number of ballot boxes in the county to one, for a county with more population than more than half of states?
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3% believe that Trump won the election.
“ The Reuters/Ipsos national opinion survey, which ran from Saturday afternoon to Tuesday, found that 79% of U.S. adults believe Biden won the White House. Another 13% said the election has not yet been decided, 3% said Trump won and 5% said they do not know.”
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Good to see news orgs are finally deciding not to take this shit lying down. If only they’d done that 5 years ago…
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@BakaNeko
“‘When saliva runs out, one has to have gunpowder,’ Brazil’s Bolsonaro says in…”
so, when the spittin’ stops, the shootin’ starts?
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The day after her ruling from the bench, Judge Stephens issued a written opinion slamming the Trump campaign’s case as based on “inadmissible hearsay within hearsay.”
It’s the Inception of baseless legal arguments.
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I’m lucky to be too old to fight a war.
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Indeed. Good on them, but shame on them for not taking stands like this years ago. It’s not like these are entirely new tactics being employed by the GOP, they are just more mainstream now thanks to Trump.
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The more of these claims I see the more I become convinced that either the US system of legal education and quality control is hopelessly borked and/or the argument that none of these claims are intended to succeed is correct.
I mean these are basic pleading failures. Wrong defendant, not sufficiently specified facts, claims for which no statutory or common law basis exists, hearsay evidence without even the pretense of dealing with the hearsay aspect.
Either the lawyers involved are incompetent or they’re deliberately looking to have the case thrown out so the campaign can point to ‘yet another’ instance of ‘the establishment’ thwarting the efforts of our saviour Donald Trump to ensure fair elections.
In which case of course they are not only incompetent but misusing the court process.
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