With 44% of the vote in, Warnock is up by a whopping 11.4%. This lead will probably narrow as the redder parts of the state count their votes, but there are still plenty of votes to count in the Atlanta metro area. Only 5% of the votes have been counted in DeKalb County.
(ETA) Update: With 56% of the vote now in, Warnock’s lead has shrunk to just 2.2% (51.1 vs. 48.9). This will probably narrow further as the red counties count every last vote, but it looks very good for Warnock to be up by this margin now with so many votes still to count in Atlanta.
According to the folks at fivethirtyeight (who are not so good at predicting, but do a damn-good job of relaying what’s going on the night of), Warnock is outperforming his performance from last month in quite a few counties. Not all of the votes are in from many of these counties yet, but it is looking good so far.
Update: Walker has taken a 2% lead (51-49), but it looks like he has already gotten most of the votes that he is going to get. His lead pales in comparison to the number of votes still to be counted in Metro Atlanta.
Update Again: Warnock is back in the lead as votes pour in from around Atlanta. With the red counties mostly counted up, I doubt that Walker will take the lead again.
off topic but it’d be so great if 538 and others started using an xkcd style pointillist map. the blocks of red ( or blue ) don’t really convey that much. they could even use grey or black dot estimates to show how much counting is still happening /wish
( also, wow it’s a close race. it’ll be curious to see if that holds in the final tally. )
I just like their running commentary where they’ll say things like, “There are an estimated 400,000 votes left to count statewide, and Candidate A would need to win a good 64% of those to overtake the lead. Looking at where those votes are located, it’s not terribly likely, considering that Party B carried 58% of the votes in those counties in the last election cycle.”
It’s like reading a Tom Clancy novel as it’s written right before your very eyes.
Or at least gray out public land. A huge swath of rural America isn’t even just sparsely populated, it’s unpopulated because it’s National Forest/National Park/BLM/State Forest/State Park/etc.
90%+ of the land in Eastern Oregon is public land. So proper maps would show the massive 6th congressional district, over half of the state, as the tiniest bit of red map.
NYT’s map is doing a reasonable job with different size circles indicating lead size in each county so overall amount of red/blue area mostly correlates to voting results. It’s still not perfect though; the overlapping circles for the most populous counties make it look like there’s less blue than there should be.
oh wow, yeah that’s great! i see what you mean about the overlaps. it feels like those could maybe merge into non circle shapes of the proper area. ( although maybe they tried that and it looked confusing and weird )
now just wire that into an ai video generator and we’re all set…
I’ve seen the “heat map” treatment before too but I do like the objective quality of area/dots/etc. linked directly to population numbers. Land doesn’t vote so it’s only fair that sparsely populated regions are represented by mostly empty space.
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