2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 1)

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:white_check_mark: demonize the refugees to cause maximum paranoia and xenophobia.

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The tensions within Poland and between Poland and its partners would seem to offer an opportunity for skillful Russian propaganda. The extraordinary recent text from Dmitri Medvedev "On Poland” was not this. It shows an imperial contempt so abstruse and unfounded as to be incomprehensible to its targets

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The current Polish govenrment is still very wrong on women’s rights and rights of LGBT+ people. I hope they will be voted out in the next elections.

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Ummm, is Gritty gonna enforce that? Because I think they probably could, but it would be touchy on “Rules of Engagement” status.

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Lol he trying to push asshole culture as being virtuous

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They see eye to eye with Russia on “moral” issues. Their friends in the EU, including Hungary, are also Russia’s friends. From the Guardian piece:

Scarred by centuries of Russian aggression and occupation culminating in nearly half a century of communist dictatorship, Poland has long warned the EU of the threat from Moscow, especially since the time of Putin’s 2014 invasion of Crimea.

The nationalist PiS-led government’s constant recent rowing with Brussels, its culture-war attacks on LGBTQ+ people and abortion rights and its bridge-building with anti-EU, pro-Putin figures such as Italy’s Matteo Salvini and France’s Marine Le Pen may have slightly muddied the picture.

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Definitely need to let JKR know that Putin think she’s doing a bang up job.

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Vandal, yes. Hooligan, no.

Oops - @chenille and @catsidhe mostly got there before me. But the link above offers additional insight.

It’s FUBAR!

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Four finger cheesesteak squadron?

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Time to BOHICA

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I’d rather not!

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I can see why he feels an affinity for Rowling, given her championing of his cousin Dobby.

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It’s so weird to me that so many people are still so fixated on the idea of a NFZ. Not only would direct combat between the US and Russia potentially lead to WWIII, but most of the analysis I’ve seen is saying that the Russian Air Force is currently playing a relatively small role in the invasion anyway, relying much more on artillery than aerial bombardment. And when they do use their planes, it’s often for launching long-range missiles from within Russian airspace, which wouldn’t be covered in a NFZ anyway.

From a recent article in Defense One:

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Poland has seen a serious back and forth over the last decade or so between more progressive, youth driven movements and a pretty embedded far right political faction. One that’s propped up by Russian influence and a population that skews older.

Hungary’s had similar going on, but Orban and his party are a lot closer to Russia. More autocratic. And a lot more embedded and in control. I dated a Hungarian woman in the 00’s who moved back in hopes of preventing that.

One of the factors that lead to the situation was the really high proportion of younger, educated Poles and Hungarians that immigrated to Europe and the US. There was a big “home to vote” style movement to return, organize, protest and vote. In hopes of pushing back the far right. And ultimate to stay permanently, develop things at home. Seems to have mostly failed in Hungary, and been only sometimes successful in Poland.

It’s all very tied to that Russia propping up far right movements in Europe thing.

And that’s a BIG part of the own goal here.

An isolated Russia can’t influence things as much, they can’t fund politicians and right wing groups. And the popular backlash against them could cut the legs out from under Russian aligned politicians.

From what I understand it would.

Which is part of the problem. A NFZ wouldn’t just involve NATO craft shooting down Russian Aircraft over Ukraine. But taking out AA capacity in Russia, and taking out aircraft in Russian airspace firing into Ukraine.

Maybe people just misunderstand it. Think it’s as simple as Russia backing down if a few NATO patrols zip over Ukraine. But even just establishing a No Fly Zone means directly attacking Russia, probably Belarus as well.

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Are there pro-Russian right wing groups in Poland?

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Ah, but that depends on the specific type of NFZ being proposed. And apparently some of the ideas on the table by congresspeople include magic.

From a tweet referenced in the article:

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I’m pretty sure they are, but current government has been strongly against Russia due to conspirancies they believe about Smolensk disaster:

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