The tensions within Poland and between Poland and its partners would seem to offer an opportunity for skillful Russian propaganda. The extraordinary recent text from Dmitri Medvedev "On Polandâ was not this. It shows an imperial contempt so abstruse and unfounded as to be incomprehensible to its targets
They see eye to eye with Russia on âmoralâ issues. Their friends in the EU, including Hungary, are also Russiaâs friends. From the Guardian piece:
Scarred by centuries of Russian aggression and occupation culminating in nearly half a century of communist dictatorship, Poland has long warned the EU of the threat from Moscow, especially since the time of Putinâs 2014 invasion of Crimea.
The nationalist PiS-led governmentâs constant recent rowing with Brussels, its culture-war attacks on LGBTQ+ people and abortion rights and its bridge-building with anti-EU, pro-Putin figures such as Italyâs Matteo Salvini and Franceâs Marine Le Pen may have slightly muddied the picture.
Itâs so weird to me that so many people are still so fixated on the idea of a NFZ. Not only would direct combat between the US and Russia potentially lead to WWIII, but most of the analysis Iâve seen is saying that the Russian Air Force is currently playing a relatively small role in the invasion anyway, relying much more on artillery than aerial bombardment. And when they do use their planes, itâs often for launching long-range missiles from within Russian airspace, which wouldnât be covered in a NFZ anyway.
Poland has seen a serious back and forth over the last decade or so between more progressive, youth driven movements and a pretty embedded far right political faction. One thatâs propped up by Russian influence and a population that skews older.
Hungaryâs had similar going on, but Orban and his party are a lot closer to Russia. More autocratic. And a lot more embedded and in control. I dated a Hungarian woman in the 00âs who moved back in hopes of preventing that.
One of the factors that lead to the situation was the really high proportion of younger, educated Poles and Hungarians that immigrated to Europe and the US. There was a big âhome to voteâ style movement to return, organize, protest and vote. In hopes of pushing back the far right. And ultimate to stay permanently, develop things at home. Seems to have mostly failed in Hungary, and been only sometimes successful in Poland.
Itâs all very tied to that Russia propping up far right movements in Europe thing.
And thatâs a BIG part of the own goal here.
An isolated Russia canât influence things as much, they canât fund politicians and right wing groups. And the popular backlash against them could cut the legs out from under Russian aligned politicians.
From what I understand it would.
Which is part of the problem. A NFZ wouldnât just involve NATO craft shooting down Russian Aircraft over Ukraine. But taking out AA capacity in Russia, and taking out aircraft in Russian airspace firing into Ukraine.
Maybe people just misunderstand it. Think itâs as simple as Russia backing down if a few NATO patrols zip over Ukraine. But even just establishing a No Fly Zone means directly attacking Russia, probably Belarus as well.