I’m not any sort of expert on Russia or pan-Slavic politics or anything like that, but I am an interested observer on the totalitarian and fascist mindset (as should be anyone who is paying attention).
My theory: The Russians are lying. Continually and reflexively. They are putting about in Russia that the Russians’ failures are in fact evidence of their magnanimity, and must, therefore, be because of negotiations where they promised to not do this thing that they’re totally justified in doing in order to get Ukraine to give up something more important, and Russia is always winning the negotiations, even if it makes it look like the war military operation is going backwards.
Then, when the military operation continues to go backwards, when the Russians continue to get the shit kicked out of them make strategic retreats, it must be because those treacherous Ukrainians have gone back on their word and are getting away with it.
There don’t have to be any specific examples, and there doesn’t have to be evidence. That isn’t how fascism and a stage four propaganda state works: He said that the Russians are honourable and magnanimous, and that the Ukrainians are treacherous and untrustworthy. That doesn’t need evidence, that should be an article of faith. It’s not the result of something that can be demonstrated, it’s an axiom. It’s not “… therefore we’re the good guys”, it’s “given that we’re the good guys…”.
You’re correct. “Пан” is a simple honorific in Ukrainian (and Polish, whence it comes) equivalent to “Mr.” or “sir” in English. In Russian it would be recognized but not used except in historic or “ethnic” contexts referring to the lands and peoples formerly under Polish rule, including Ukraine. Though the use a honorific in general is a bit loaded because it’s not needed in common usage (Russian and Ukrainian alike). It has a note of “gentleman” in BB parlance.
There’s a distinction to be made between Dugin’s work having a influence on the Kremlin (Foundations of Geopolitics absolutely does) and Dugin himself having influence there (he’s more of a pundit than a member of Putin’s inner circle).
That unusual position of half-influence is why – if Dugin has gotten into the habit of telling anyone that the FSB was responsible for this botched war – he and/or his horrible daughter would be targetted by this murderous bunch.
Dugin’s position of half-influence also means that anyone looking for a scapegoat can safely pick him.
ETA: If Dugin is the designated fall guy, it would be especially intolerable for him to be going around blaming people with real power and influence, such as the FSB.
The actual influence of Dugin over Putin’s day-to-day operations has been a longstanding subject of debate, with some Russia experts calling him “Putin’s spiritual guide” and others, mostly those in Moscow, saying he was an irrelevant figure eager to appear close to the Kremlin for personal profit. Dugin reportedly asked for as much as €500 (£425) for interviews with western media.
A scapegoat or a martyr. Or, Russia being Russia, both. The interesting thing is that the level of cynicism in the country is such that everyone is just assuming the perpetrators are Russian and that no-one is yet bothering to push the narrative that the bombing is the work of “fascist terrorists guided by Kyiv”.
Well, yeah, but she demands that if her morning coffee isn’t hot enough. Only the real rubes, the obvious dimwits, are expected to buy whatever she’s selling.
“A Russian man - with a Z sticker on his car - got a very hostile reception from locals in Astana. Kazakhstan, who are no fans of the Zwastika or the people that support it.”
So after all those decades of blacklists and worries about the international communist conspiracy and the Comintern and lists in briefcases, here’s where we are.
One line of speculation I’ve seen is that this might indeed be an inside job, by someone else in the ultranationalist / national bolshevik crowd, who figured it would be blamed on the Ukrainians.
