tl;dr The Ukrainian offensive is still in the first phase, attrition of enemy forces until they have been weakened enough to allow a breakthrough. NATO powers do this entirely with air power but Ukraine, not having air superiority, must fight the Russians on the ground to bait them into bringing heavy equipment within reach of Ukraine’s artillery and HIMARS rockets.
And this part is going well, at least according to the daily tallies of Russian losses released by the Ukrainian MoD. Since May, Ukraine has been destroying more than twice as many pieces of Russian artillery than previously, and in the first four days of July they have already destroyed more than in the entire month of December:
In June they also set new monthly records for destroying MLRS (57), anti-aircraft systems (56) and special equipment (122).
Russian personnel losses have remained roughly the same as during the Bakhmut offensive in winter/spring, even though as defenders they are supposed to be relatively safer now:
Hanlon’s Razor is, indeed, very sharp…
FFS. The Pentagon are disappointed with the speed of the counter offensive? It’s not like rolling over a third rate petro-srate with overweening air superiority on your side, now is it? Oy.
GeoConfirmed UKR [CO].
It was noted that Ukraine is stepping up in the destruction of Russian artillery (Field and AA).
This is also visible on our map (Use the filter).
These are all the geolocated hit/destroyed -visually confirmed- Russian artillery assets in the last month.50+
Important: if the source claims an arty piece was destroyed, but we can’t find proof or we can’t see it, this is pictured with the shelling symbol. These claims are not visible on this map.
And if two pieces or more are destroyed on one location this is only pictured with one icon.Released footage is only a fraction from what is really happening. So the amount of destroyed arty pieces will be much higher.
Oh, I wouldn’t read too much into the Pentagon’s disappointment. It’s more of a “darn, we were hoping the Russians wouldn’t have been so thick with the mines. Oh well.” It’s not a condemnation of the Ukrainians.
I for the record think he Ukrainians are playing it smart. Message discipline is an underrated part of military operations, and not being goaded into rash actions is harder than you might think.
Is an armored train really all that secure? Blow the tracks, let it dereail, wait him out.
Over a bridge, maybe you don’t have to wait so long.
Why is it still allowed to be traded? Didn’t the sanctions prevent that?
From March 0f '22:
As things stand, traders no longer consider the ruble to be a free-trading currency. Capital controls imposed in the aftermath of Western sanctions mean the exchange rate is effectively a managed one. Russia has forced exporters to sell foreign exchange and is also demanding its natural gas be paid for in rubles. Many currency-trading shops have stopped dealing in the ruble on the grounds that its value seen on monitors is not the price it can be traded at in the real world. That brings the curtains down on its free float since 2014 unless Russia’s international isolation ends and the country allows purely market-based pricing once more. Russians initially lined up at cash machines around the country to withdraw foreign currency, but panic has subsided since the ruble stabilized. Strategists say the ruble’s rally isn’t credible, and that the currency would be trading at a very different level if artificial barriers were removed.
https://www.forex.com/en-us/forex-trading/ruble-update/
The ruble is currently unavailable to trade with FOREX.com (and many other brokerages) because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The war against Ukraine that Russia began in February 2022 prompted a slew of sanctions against Russia by major nations and groups including the US, EU, UK, Japan, Canada, and many others. These sanctions include trade bans on Russian exports and imports, as well as transactions with Russia’s central bank. The exchange of currencies, such as US dollars to Russian rubles and euros to rubles, has also been blocked.
Because of these sanctions, the value of the ruble has become disconnected between its quote inside Russia and the quote outside of Russia by foreign central banks. This disparity creates extreme volatility in ruble pairs, especially USD/RUB, increased spreads, and the risk of gapping when trading RUB with major currencies like USD and EUR.
Within a few days of Russia’s invasion, the ruble was blocked from the SWIFT network, a global system used by major banks and financial institutions to transfer money. This removal prevents Russia from making financial transactions with other countries and, along with the numerous other sanctions, has threatened to bring about the collapse of the Russian currency.
More here:
